As many of us are now returning to work after a splendid summer, we’re taking a quick glance at the development of the 2018 traditional TV viewing so far. It’s of course with a special focus on summer ratings, particularly since Sweden this year outperformed all expectations and made it to the quarter finals in 2018 FIFA World cup in July.
And clear enough, the graph shows how the major sports events positively impact on a generally decreasing audience development. This goes both for the Winter Olympics in February (Discovery Networks) and FIFA World cup in June-July (public service SVT and commercial TV4).
Average daily viewing time per week, 3+
Zooming in on the weeks of the FIFA championship and comparing with the weeks of FIFA in 2014, viewing minutes decreased by -9% in 3+. In the target audience 15-24 year-olds, the viewing decline is -43% comparing the FIFA weeks of 2014 and 2018. But this is still less than the average drop in the same group (-49%, January-July 2014 vs 2018), so without doubt, the World cup has a significant value in slowing down the decline. Meanwhile, in the other end of the age scale, 60+ instead increased their viewing minutes by 7%.
Average daily viewing time (min) during FIFA WC ¹
SVT and TV4 have shared the broadcast rights of FIFA WC 2014 and 2018. Share of viewing for both broadcasters increased between 11-19% during the games 2014 and 2018, compared to each broadcaster’s overall share of viewing year-to-date. For their main contenters, NENT (formerly MTG) and Discovery, the World cup had the opposite impact. However, it is important to note that NENT as well as Discovery figures are affected by their respective broadcast rights of the Winter Olympics 2014 and 2018.
Broadcaster share of viewing (SOV)
Earlier this week, the OTT titan Netflix confirmed its’ testing of a new subscription plan in Europe – the “Ultra plan”. How does Ultra differ from its three other subscription tiers? And why Ultra? This week, Mediavision elaborates on some of the questions around the Netflix pricing and packaging.
It is no news that Netflix is the leading streaming platform globally. And Netflix is probably the single most important phenomenon driving traditional media companies to re-think their strategies and sometimes even business models. Studies show that 40% of US viewers 18 to 34-year olds prefer Netflix when watching TV. The strong position of Netflix is also highly apparent here in the Nordics; out of a daily average of 8,6 million OTT viewers, does Netflix alone account for approx. 3,6 mill (15-74-year old’s) as earlier reported by Mediavision. In other words, Netflix is outplacing all other SVOD services in the Nordics.
Netflix is of course aware of its’ sweet spot and it is not surprising that it is experimenting with new pricing models. So, the Ultra plan is now being tested among some of its’ customers in Europe.
The Ultra plan is the most expensive Netflix service, reportedly with a price up to €19,99, but without any new features (compared to the current Premium plan). The difference is that the Ultra tier supports HDR, which Premium reportedly would not anymore. The Ultra plan is only tested among a selected group of subscribers and only in a few European countries, and these have reported different experiences of the Ultra plan. Firstly, the price differs between €16,99 and €19,99 between different test takers, secondly, Netflix has downgraded the features of the other subscription plans for some subscribers – but not to everyone. Among some subscribers that have been offered to try the Ultra plan, the features of the Premium and Standard subscriptions were downgraded, but remaining at the same price level. For these subscribers, the Premium plan has been reduced to only offer streaming to two devices simultaneously (instead as earlier to four), and no option for HDR. The Standard plan has also been reduced to cover only one screen (earlier two). However, for some other Netflix subscribers that are trying the Ultra plan, the other plans have been left the same. Netflix has confirmed that it is “testing slightly different price points and features to better understand how consumers value Netflix”. In other words, the rationale behind Ultra seems to be to make “improvements” pricewise – for Netflix, but not the customer, and to evaluate how highly customers value different features. It is, however, still uncertain if the Ultra plan will leave the laboratory and be rolled out for real, and how the Ultra plan in that case would affect the other subscription plans.
The Standard and Premium plans are currently the most popular tiers and if the features of these would be reduced, it is likely that some of these customers would level up and pay more – this is probably the question Netflix is hoping to answer with the ongoing test with Ultra. It can also be assumed that the Basic and Standard plans would be streamlined for smaller/younger households. Looking at historic price increases, e g 2017, Netflix subscription growth was not affected as shown below.
The paid memberships increased by +10% in international markets between Q3 and Q4 2017 in spite of the price increase. The outcome of higher prices and continued subscriber growth made Netflix’ contribution profit to increase by $72 million between the two quarters (amounting to a total of approx. $135 million in Q4 2017). In Q1 2018, the profit had increased to $272 million – which of course could be an important factor behind the new Ultra plan. The investment in content for Netflix has been increasing substantially over the last years and 2018 the company communicated a content budget of $8 billion.
But – an important but – is that Netflix obviously has not yet decided on the faith of the Ultra plan. It is still very much a case of “stay tuned” – nonetheless it shows the self-confidence of the company (reflecting on increasing prices by €3 to €6 without adding anything, less than a year after the last price increase). Time will tell how highly customers value Netflix; will they seek cheaper options among competitors if the Ultra plan is launched?
So, the enticing benefits for Netflix are obvious – higher revenues and better margins. But this could also be beneficial to local competitors, historically pressured by the market leader and its’ privilege to decide on qualifier levels as well as price points. Maybe it will also turn out that there is an opening for even lower-priced services, attracting economically conscious subscribers.Läs mer
Since the last blog post – focus M&A’s on the global media market – the merger between AT&T and Time Warner has been approved and the bidding war between Disney and Comcast over 21st Century Fox has escalated to the next level. Today, we take a closer look at the new giant AT&T and possible implications of its merger with Time Warner.
On June 12, AT&T’s $85 billion bid on Time Warner was approved by the US District Court. The merger was finalized two days later, making it to one of the largest media mergers in history. AT&T, however, did not settle with this. Two weeks later, the company announced the acquisition of AppNexus, specialized in technology for online advertising (so called SSP – sell side platform). Sources say that the price tag was approx. $1.6 billion. Further, AT&T is reportedly planning to buy the remaining 50% of Otter Media, a company that invests in and launches OTT services globally.
Doubtless – it is the acquisition of Warner Media* that stands out. A lot has already been said about this mega merger, but likely the most interesting is to elaborate on the rationale “behind”. One of the prime reasons behind this vertical integration is to strengthen AT&T’s total offerings toward consumers and households. More content means more ways of packaging and pricing – thereby meeting the different consumer needs that now rapidly emerge on the digital media market. And AT&T did not waste any time highlighting its’ new content library, as it shortly after the merger announced the launch of its new streaming service Watch TV. The service includes 31 channels for live streaming and 15 000 TV shows and movies on demand. Watch TV is offered both as a stand-alone service, for $15 per month, and as a bundle included in the new AT&T wireless plans. Depending on which package, the customer also receives a $15 discount on either AT&T’s DirecTV, DirecTV Now or U-verse TV service. In addition, a premium wireless plan customer can also subscribe to one other premium video or music service** without any extra cost. This clearly highlights the AT&T strategy to bundle; different services and various price plans will hopefully keep churn low and retention high.
Since Time Warner was one of the largest global media companies, AT&T now has plenty of attractive content and channels – such as HBO (the home of Game of Thrones and Westworld) and CNN (the #1 news network among 18-34-year olds in the US). Moreover, Turner Broadcasting, one of Time Warner’s many assets, has three of the top five ad-supported cable networks in primetime among 18-49-year olds (TBS, TNT and Adult Swim) while another asset, Warner Bros., is the leading producer of film and TV programming with titles like Wonder Woman and Dunkirk. Set aside all the hours of high quality content, this also means even more consumer data. AT&T’s advertising and analytics business unit, which the newly acquired company AppNexus will be part of, can draw valuable customer insights from its TV, mobile and broadband services. This knowledge will enable even more personalized offerings, with higher accuracy going forward. This is another clear advantage in the highly competitive media market of today.
The diagram below illustrates the impressive revenue stream that AT&T and Time Warner had in Q1 2018. By totaling the two, the combined quarterly revenue amounted to $46 billion. In perspective, Comcast, which is the third largest media company in the world (based on revenue for the fiscal year 2017), and like AT&T offers TV, Internet and phone services, “only” reported a revenue half of AT&T and Time Warner (Comcast’s revenue was almost $22.8 billion in Q1).
But as we have learned, Comcast is also looking to grow its business through mergers. It is in an ongoing bidding war with Disney for 21st Century Fox assets. Shortly after Mediavision’s last blog post on June 8, Comcast made a bid on Fox, which then has been raised by Disney to $71.3 bn – an increase of $18.9 bn compared to Disney’s initial bid in December. Disney took another step closer to closing the deal as US regulators earlier this week cleared the pending acquisition of Fox by The Walt Disney Company, but with the requirement to sell the Fox Sports Regional Networks. Simultaneously, Comcast and Fox are competing to acquire the European media company Sky.
So, the conclusion? Obviously one main strategy for both traditional media and operators is to merge vertically – all in order to improve long-term competitiveness, in a market that has increasingly been challenged by tech companies. The same development is seen locally with pending acquisitions between Telia and Bonnier Broadcasting as well as Tele2 and Com Hem, and with the previous discussions between TDC and MTG, which, however, were disrupted.
In this blog post, Mediavision describes the eventful times of consolidation on the global media market, by disentangling the conundrum that is Fox and Sky’s future ownership.
In December 2016, 21st Century Fox made a bid on Europe’s largest pay TV operator Sky to acquire the remaining 61% shares it does not already own of the company. This was the start of what media is referring to as the “bidding war” in which Fox, Comcast and Disney are involved.
Since Fox’ bid on Sky, Disney and Comcast have gotten involved as well. Disney made a $52 bn bid for Fox’ movie and TV sections (including its 39% stake in Sky). Comcast did not only make a bid for Sky (which is 16% higher than Fox’ bid), but also revealed intentions to compete with Disney on acquiring Fox. The proposed mergers are illustrated below.
Figure 1: Current market situation.
Fox’ bid on Sky (in 2016) has been scrutinized by UK:s Ofcom and the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA). The potential merger has aroused lots of discussion, mainly around the greater influence and power that the Murdoch family would gain in British media if the bid is approved. Also, Sky News’ editorial independence under the Fox umbrella has been discussed. The Murdoch family owns 39% in both 21st Century Fox and News Corp, the latter which consists of e.g. the newspapers The Times, The Sun and The Sunday Times. However, earlier this week, the British government announced that if Fox were to sell Sky News to Disney, as proposed by Fox, with an agreement to ensure that Sky News is funded for at least 10 years (also offered by Fox earlier on), it would be an effective remedy for the public interest concerns that have been called attention to. The British Secretary of Culture also allowed the Comcast bid to proceed, meaning that there is a set-up for a bidding war between the American giants. Regardless if Fox/Disney or Comcast acquires Sky, the buying company would reach 23 million new Sky customers in Europe. This would of course make any buyer better prepared to compete with challengers like Netflix and Amazon.
But consolidation and mergers is apparently the name of the current game, also in other media/tech related companies. In the US, discussions between CBS and Viacom are on-going and AT&T and Time Warner are waiting for a green light from the US District Court. Locally, Telia and Bonnier Broadcasting have confirmed discussions of a merger and Tele2 and Com Hem are awaiting approval of their merger – a decision is expected in the second half of 2018. Depending on the outcome of these potential mergers, media companies bigger than Netflix, in terms of market capitalization, could be created.
Figure 2: Potential market formation.
The illustration above points at a possible outcome of the mergers as well as the size of these media giants – in market cap with today’s* value. Acquiring Fox would add highly rated assets to Disney – such as the X-Men franchise and The Simpsons – which of course also would strengthen its planned streaming service. Moreover, Disney would also become the majority owner of Hulu. Disney has earlier announced that it is pulling its content from Netflix, and with these new resources it would be better prepared to compete with Netflix.
For Comcast, an acquisition of Sky means that it would be able to grow, while avoiding government scrutiny associated with expanding its US cable business, as it is the largest American cable provider. Also, Sky’s streaming service Now TV with its 2 million subscribers, would grow Comcast’s OTT footprint. Next week, AT&T and Time Warner will receive a decision on their merger plans – an outcome that is likely to influence if Comcast will make an official bid on Fox or not.
Moreover, with the mentioned potential local mergers, the international trend is seemingly spreading to the Nordic countries as well. Yet, as the illustrations show, there remains a major difference in scale between the local and US/UK-based actors.
*Market cap as of June 1st, in some cases of June 4th.Läs mer
Youtube just announced the release of its Spotify contender, Youtube Music. The service is coming to the Nordic countries in the coming weeks.
To illustrate the potential threat this poses to existing music streaming services we have provided an example of the potential impact this might have:
Spotify reported 75 mn premium subscribers out of a total monthly user base of 170 mn globally in Q1 2018. This corresponds to a subscriber share of 44 percent of the total user base. Youtube recently announced a monthly logged in user base of 1.8 bn, worldwide. Now if Youtube Music was to reach a similar share of paying subscribers out of that user base as Spotify, Youtube’s music service would reach approx 790 mn paying subscribers globally.
Now, Spotify mentions in the prospect before its DPO on the New York Stock Exchange that it accounted for around 95% of the Swedish music streaming market in 2017. Considering that Youtube has roughly 3 mn monthly viewers (15-74 yrs) in Sweden, the launch of Youtube Music may pose a considerable threat to Spotify’s dominating market position.Läs mer
Another season of Swedish public service broadcaster SVT’s Melodifestivalen has come to an end. We congratulate the favorite Benjamin Ingrosso that will compete for Sweden with the winning song Dance You Off at the Eurovision Song Contest in Lisbon in May.
The six broadcasted programs 2018 (four qualifying rounds, a semifinal and final) attracted 3 million viewers on average (OV; 3 042’), which is the lowest viewing since the format was introduced 2002 (excluding 2010 which was marginally lower; 3 017’ on average). The entirety was weighed down by this year’s semifinal, which dipped to all time low ratings. The final, however, acted counter-weight with an audience of 3 500’. Comparing the average of this year’s six shows to overall viewing 2018 so far (-6% YOY), Mello-viewing declined more; -9%.
In addition, average age of the Melodifestivalen audience is basically unchanged at 45 since 2002, in contrast to traditional TV in general where the average age has increased from 47 to 55 since 2002 to 2017 (and 2018 YTD). Despite decreasing ratings for all target groups, Melodifestivalen manages to retain a fairly homogeneous audience. The show still attracts a significant portion of younger viewers yet to leave traditional TV; the final 2018 attracted an audience share of over 90% among 15-24 year-olds.
SVT Play however noted an increase in viewership for the Melodifestivalen finals, compared to 2017. Saturday’s web audience amounted to 110’, twice the amount of 2017. But despite the hefty increase, web audience remains insignificant compared to traditional. Melodifestivalen is without a doubt biggest on large screen and linear viewing. In other words, Melodifestivalen is not affected by the digital migration in the same way as apparent elsewhere in media. It is rather the opposite – Melodifestivalen is a highly reliable tent-pole in a time when interest for TV is in decline and the audience aging.
SVT has furthermore expanded its content offering with Melodifestivalen peripherals; back-stage-reportage, interviews, panel discussions, artists and performance curiosity etc. Viewing on this content has however been modest. The most started program or show during Saturday (the day of the final) was the actual program; 500’ starts. Succeeding was the clip of Ingrossos winning performance with close to 60’ starts. The same clip was also distributed through the Melodifestivalen channel on Youtube, which after two days almost reached 500’ views. Clip interested target groups thereby don’t turn, despite improved content offering, to SVT Play but to global giants such as Youtube.Läs mer
Zooming in on the Nordic market, Mediavision’s analysis “Nordic e-sports & gaming Insight 2017/2018” shows that e-sports is becoming a staple among consumers. Almost 3 in 4 e-sports/gaming viewers in the Nordics (73%) stated an interest in a specific e-sports venue (for example Dreamhack) in Q4 2017. This shows that the venues themselves have become popular, and e-sports is no longer simply “games played professionally” but an entire eco-system of value creation, for consumers and actors alike. If you wish to gain more insights on the subject, please contact us or order the analysis right away.
On a global scale, e-sports has been making waves as well. Traditional sports actors are also getting in on the action. This can, for example, be illustrated by how Turner Broadcasting and IMG’s e-sports tournament series Eleague is marketed to viewers. For instance, much like in professional traditional sports, Turner has promoted Eleague by building personalities and generating storylines around teams and players. And evidently this is paying off; Eleague recently, during an event in Boston, broke the record for most concurrent viewers (1.1 million on Amazon-owned platform Twitch). The event was featuring games publisher Valve’s first-person-shooter-game Counter Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO).
While Eleague is proof that a tournament series outside of traditional sports can be commercially successful, the e-sports scene is still very much under construction. Major League Baseball is one of the traditional sports actors that is looking at the e-sports market. However, Jamie Leece, VP of games and virtual reality at MLB Advanced Media, expresses concern regarding the profitability of e-sports contests. He points out that the products and organizations around e-sports can profit, but that the contests themselves are still struggling. Leagues and IP holders have yet to solve the puzzle, according to Leece.
Turner and IMG might be on track to success with Eleague. But game publisher Blizzard Entertainment has taken another approach; creating its own e-sports league in-house for its blockbuster game Overwatch. Inspired by the strategy of Eleague, Blizzard has also adopted the proven format of traditional broadcasting when creating Overwatch League. The teams are tied to geographical regions with names such as Seoul Dynasty, London Spitfire and Florida Mayhem. Also, while fighting games are more of a niche market, games publisher Capcom, best known for the Street Fighter series, has been hosting its own in-house league Capcom Pro Tour since 2013. If these moves prove successful, and the price of distribution rights continues to increase, more publishers might follow.
However, breaking into to the upper echelon of e-sports is no small feat. For years the same titles have comfortably topped the viewing lists (Valve’s CS:GO and Dota 2 and Riot Games’ League of Legends). It has taken hard work and huge investments for the publisher Blizzard to finally launch its own in-house-league. Overwatch is one of few games to really rival the top e-sports titles in popularity. The success of Overwatch could set an example for other publishers, but most likely in-house and independent leagues will co-exist.Läs mer
The Mediavision Swedish TV Insight Q4 analysis, published Feb 1:st, once again points at the rapid growth of the OTT market. Viewing, subscribing households, market value – all major KPI:s of the OTT business are pointing in the same upward direction. As stated in the latest press release; yet another record level for SVOD was noted, with a 41% household penetration. Global (or, rather US) actors are still leading the game, with a combined market share of 65% for Netflix and HBO Nordic. And this is higher than last year – indicating some tough challenges for at least some of the locals going forward.
Looking at the consumers, fiction is still the most popular genre – by far – gathering nearly 50% of all time spent watching online video. And it may not come as a surprise that 80% of this viewing time is allocated to foreign content. Entertainment, bulk in traditional TV, is only a fraction in OTT and accounts for a modest 10% of all online video consumption. In contrast to fiction, local services are taking a big slice of the pie in this genre; approx. 70% of the OTT viewing in entertainment is in Swedish.
So, what could be the implications looking at 2018?
First, we already see an increasing supply of both local and international fiction. The market is more competitive and consumers more sophisticated than before. The global giants are directing larger investments into locally produced content, for instance Netflix’ Q4 report points at the around-the-globe success of local originals such as German Dark, Brazilian 3%, and Italian Suburra. In the pipeline for 2018 is more than 30 new local originals. The entertainment genre, though, appears to be significantly less interesting for the big dragons. This leaves room for local players. A not-so-wild guess is that traditional broadcasters will push all sorts of non-fiction genres during 2018. However, time spent on non-fiction in OTT, will most likely not be of any comparable size to traditional TV. A big question will also be how non-fiction can help drive consumption in general and subscriber numbers specifically.
To meet the increasing demand of insights regarding both viewing and subscriptions, Mediavision is now launching a new service The Inventory Insight. It will be key to fully understand how content and content inventory is correlating to viewing and subscriptions. The Inventory Insight is a quarterly analysis covering all content across AVOD, SVOD and TVOD across the Nordics – to facilitate strategic positioning on the increasingly competitive market of online video.Läs mer
Since the start of 2018, the e-sports industry has seen several major market events. Globally, Turner and WME/IMG owned Eleague has both sold exclusive streaming rights to Amazon’s Twitch and broken viewership records on the same platform, with 1.1 million concurrent viewers. Activision Blizzard’s long anticipated Overwatch League is now entering its third week since launch after reaching 10 million viewers in its first week – following a 90 MUSD distribution deal on Twitch. And on the Nordic market, Danish Yousee recently signed a deal to become the main sponsor and distributor of the official Danish e-sports league “Esportligaen”.
Additionally, according to Mediavision’s Q4 2017 analysis, viewer demographics of e-sports content is broadening. The average age remains stable on a yearly basis at 31 years, while the share of female viewers increased from approximately 1 in 10 to almost 3 in 10.
The increased interest among a broadening consumer base is certainly a factor which has contributed to exclusive content rights becoming more coveted. Also, the fact that several distribution platforms want to position themselves in the e-sports arena (eg Twitch, Youtube and Facebook) means that the competition over rights increases as well – something that become more apparent in the past couple of years.
The development on the e-sports and gaming market is analyzed in-depth in Mediavision’s “Nordic e-sports & gaming insight”. The emphasis of the analysis is on consumer and market insights on the Nordic market – with a focus on Sweden. If you want a deeper understanding of where the e-sports and gaming markets are heading in 2018 and forward, we suggest you contact us or pre-order the analysis today.Läs mer
The Swedish OTT market 2017-2018 was discussed on the Mediavision breakfast seminar in Stockholm wednesday (January 24)th,.
As we have reported earlier, OTT has grown considerably over the last years. One of the main driving forces is high quality content. Mediavision can now conclude that Q4 2017 daily OTT reach (15-74-year olds) has reached a level of 43%. There are also clear indications that the market is maturing; audiences are getting a little older and consume a somewhat wider range of content. Global giants still dominate both AVOD and SVOD. Mediavision predicts that 2018 will be yet another strong year for OTT, with even tougher competition (in an already quite tough market).
For the local OTT services, run by owners such as e g Bonnier, MTG and SVT, one of the big questions is how to respond to the pressure from the American streaming companies and their enormous content budgets. Netflix said in its Q4 report on Monday, that it added a record breaking 8.3 million new subscribers globally, allowing an even higher content spend this year (approx. 8 bn USD). Clearly, the locals’ need to differentiate and spend their money wisely.
In order to support its’ clients in this work, Mediavision – in collaboration with Playpilot – yesterday announced a new quarterly analysis The Inventory Insight. It is a data driven content analysis focusing on the supply side of all major OTT services in the Nordics.
The breakfast seminar also catered for a panel discussion looking at 2018. Lena Glaser, programming director at SVT, Mathias Berg, operative manager at Bonnier Broadcasting, Fredrik Ljungberg, programming director at Viaplay, all gave their views on the challenges of being a local service in a highly competitive market. The panel agreed that local content, local language and local presence are key assets. And, according to the panelists, having a linear TV business is still very important.Läs mer
During 2016 the Swedish influencer market had a turnover of 500 MSEK, according to IRM. This corresponds to a growth by 40%, double that of overall digital advertising revenues at around 20% growth for 2016. No figures have yet been released for 2017, but the market is likely to have grown further. And 2018 has already delivered one major industry event. German media giant Bertelsmann finally made an entry on the Nordic market by acquiring Swedish YouTube and influencer network United Screens for 120 million SEK. Looking forward, another major event is the upcoming winter Olympics, in which Discovery Networks has focused on integrating influencers in their coverage of the games. During the Olympics, influencers will be seen in both traditional outlets as well as in Snapchat, after Discovery struck a deal with the social media company in October of last year.
Furthermore, there are other signs that indicate an upswing for influencer marketing. Last week Facebook announced an update to its news feed algorithm, saying that it would now prioritize posts made by friends and family higher than those from brands and companies. Mark Zuckerberg explained that the feedback they have gotten from the community indicates that posts from media, brands and companies take up too much space in the news feed at the expense of moments that connect users to each other. He also added that he expects people to spend less time in total on the Facebook platform as a result, but that the time spent will be perceived as more valuable. Advertisements are not directly affected, but less time spent on Facebook means less exposure to ads. If companies who rely heavily on Facebook for advertising start to receive less traffic as a cause of this change, they might have to look elsewhere. Some have already expressed their concerns on the matter. This could provide an opportunity for influencers as their posts will not be affected negatively by the update.
Lastly, YouTube had several run-ins with advertisers during 2017 in regard to ads being displayed in inappropriate contexts. This caused several companies to pull their ads off YouTube. The company has since taken steps toward being perceived as brand-safe. Recently YouTube announced that it is raising the bar for channels to be able to monetize their videos, thus kicking out thousands of smaller content creators from its advertising program in the process – meaning more leverage for already established influencers.
All in all, things are continuing to look up for the influencer community and 2018 is set to set a new record year for the market.Läs mer
Looking back on 2017, the digital transition of consumers in video is going strong, especially in the older age groups who are becoming ever more frequent users of streaming services. Amongst the young, a clear majority are frequent users of on demand services. In the 15-24 age bracket, 70 percent of time spent viewing is on demand. The dominance of on demand viewing in the younger age groups comes as no surprise, however the real challenge comes as older age groups start to radically change their consumption habits.
The American giants often referred to as “FAANG” (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) dominate the market. Combined, Netflix and Google/YouTube accumulated more than half of all on demand viewing in the Nordics during 2017 while local actors had to make due with what was left. And we have yet to really see the likes of Amazon or Facebook Watch on the Nordic market. Disney, on the other hand, is most definitely preparing to make a move. Bob Iger closed out 2017 by acquiring a large stake in Murdoch’s 21 Century Fox for $66 bn, which gives Disney access to a gargantuan library of content rights as well as the American streaming service Hulu. Conclusion 1: The American giants will most likely continue to dominate during 2018. Which in turn poses the perhaps biggest challenge for the local media actors.
Despite the media ownership being globalized and moving west, the picture is not as clear when it comes to content. On one hand: A clear majority of the viewing on streaming services’ 2017 was spent on foreign content. On the other hand: The American giants are increasingly interested in locally produced content. Netflix has recently been stepping up their production of non-American content with productions such as Italian series Suburra, Swedish Quicksand, German DARK, Brazilian 3% and Danish The Rain. According to Netflix’ head of content Ted Sarandos, Netflix’ strategy for 2018 is to ramp up the production of local content. HBO Nordic is jumping on the bandwagon as well. Swedish director Lukas Moodysson is set to produce a series called Gösta. To the consumers’ delight local streaming actors are ramping up their production as well. Both public service and commercial actors are putting money toward local drama and sports, among other things. Collaborations between companies are becoming more frequent, as a pragmatic way of solving the increasing costs of a global arena. Conclusion 2: Consumers rejoice! 2018 is looking to be a year of content in abundance.
So, what does the crystal ball tell us about 2018? So far, this year has shown two different but important structural changes, and that is just in its first two weeks. They might provide a hint of where we are heading. European media conglomerate RTL acquired United Screens on January 9th and Com Hem – Tele2 announced a merger on January 10th. These two events indicate that size matters in today’s media industry. To create scalable economic advantages is the obvious goal for companies who directly target consumers. Add to that a strong economy, large sporting events (Olympics and FIFA World Cup) and even a general election. All the ingredients for excitement and large media events are in place for 2018.
Another question that needs answering, and that is being asked by many, is how local and traditional actors can establish a long-term advantageous position for themselves? The cost of technology, marketing and customer management is huge. Not to mention the cost of strong and well-made content…
Mediavision estimates that close to 5 million Nordic households will have at least one paid on demand streaming service at the end of 2018. Usage of ad-funded services is quickly rising as well. Altogether, another year of strong growth for OTT – but with the majority of revenue going to global actors. At the same time, the traditional streams of revenue (advertising and pay TV) are being stretched thin. Conclusion 3: Based on this, we are likely to see more restructuring in the Nordics of the same kind that started off the year. Perhaps, a couple of unexpected collaborations might pop up. “Bigger is better” seems to be the way to deal with the competition from the American giants.
Regarding the consumers, the future is easier to predict. 2018 will be a year of extraordinarily strong supply – qualitatively better and more abundant than ever before. Seldom has so much great content been produced and made available to so many. Welcome 2018!
CEO MediavisionLäs mer
2017 will go to history as one of the most eventful years that the Swedish gambling market has ever experienced. Primarily, this is due to the governmental inquiry that was presented March 31, including recommendations for a future market regulation. In short, the commission suggests a licensing system, in which gambling operators can apply for licenses to offer certain gambling types to Swedish consumers. If everything goes according to plan, 2018 will mark the last year with the current regulation in place, as the suggested implementation of the new system is in January 2019.
The main incentive for the Swedish government to get the licensing system in place is, arguably, the increasing size of non-Sweden regulated operators on the Swedish market. With the current system, the government is without both control and potential tax income from operators not regulated in Sweden.
With that said, Sweden regulated actors, such as horse racing monopolist ATG and state-owned Svenska Spel, still control a clear majority of the Swedish gambling market. As an example of their strong position, ATG accounted for 90 percent of all gambling spend on horse racing during the past year, according to Mediavision’s analysis.
However, ATG has found it difficult to persuade the younger generation of gamblers to place their bets on horses, a potential future worry. And in other gambling verticals, Svenska Spel is already suffering from much fiercer competition. In the sports betting vertical, Svenska Spel “only” took approximately 40 percent of all gambling spend during 2017, according to Mediavision. The other 60 percent was captured by brands regulated outside of Sweden, such as Unibet, Bet365 and Betsson.
All in all, aggregated market growth is fully captured by operators regulated outside of Sweden. This is partly reflected in recent customer account registrations. According to Mediavision’s gambling analysis of 2017, 62 percent of all gambling accounts registered during the past 12 months were with non-Sweden regulated brands.
This is one part of the explanation as to why Sweden regulated operators have been fairly positive towards the commission’s suggestion overall, as it will open up the current system, where certain categories of gambling are not fully permitted. This is perhaps most evident for online casino, as no Sweden regulated operator is allowed to provide this gambling form under the current legislation. Following the commission’s suggestion, ATG recently made a notable M&A move, as the horse racing monopolist signed a conditional agreement to acquire Danish online casino and sportsbook operator Ecosys once the new regulation is in place.
Non-Sweden regulated operators have also been largely positive towards the commission’s suggestion, overall. This is partly due to the improved marketing opportunities that come with the suggested system. The group would get access to all available advertising platforms, be able to offer sponsorships and to expand collaborations with Google and Facebook.
Ahead of the expected reregulation, there is an aggressive race for market shares going on among the many actors on the Swedish gambling market, to obtain the best possible position going forward. Before the dust settles, we are likely to see more company acquisitions and mergers, in order for actors to solidify their positions and to leverage their customer bases. As the market matures and new structures fall in place, there will need to be an increased focus on customer retention rather than acquisition, and on decreasing costs rather than just increasing revenue.
In other words, the upcoming few years will probably be just as interesting and eventful as 2017 for the Swedish gambling market.Läs mer
On the Nordic TV market, traditional TV viewing continues down the path of decline during fall 2017. The waning viewer interest in broadcast TV is part of an overall trend, with consumers shifting to online. But viewership in 2017 has also taken a hit due to the lack of major sporting events. 2016 housed both the UEFA Euros and the summer Olympics in Rio. Looking towards 2018, viewership is expected to be affected positively by both the winter Olympics and the FIFA World cup. Nordic countries represented in the World Cup are Denmark, Iceland and Sweden, while the winter Olympics is expected to draw massive interest from both Finland and Norway.
On the other hand, online video consumption continues to grow across all age groups. Among young (15-24 year-olds), two thirds of total daily video viewing time (traditional TV + online video) was spent on online video services. Online video consumption is also displaying strong growth in older age groups. Across all Nordic markets, the older age segments represent the largest relative online video viewing growth during fall 2017.
Also, consumers continue to prefer global over local. In terms of subscription video on demand (SVOD) services, global actors Netflix and HBO Nordic dominate. Meanwhile, Netflix and Youtube account for more than half of all online video viewing across the Nordics. Amazon Prime Video has yet to make an impact on the Nordic market, but are expected to further increase competition once they decide to enter the region fully (i.e. Amazon Marketplace and Prime).
Mediavision follows the Nordic media industry, with a focus on video, in the bi-annual analysis Nordic Video Insight. Click here to learn more.Läs mer
In an attempt to combat problems related to the past year’s advertiser boycott, Google stated that it is hiring thousands of new workers to review content on the platform. This came as a direct response to the critique regarding Youtube as an advertiser friendly video service, a debate which recently resurfaced. Several big companies joined the boycott as their ads had been placed next to videos containing inappropriate elements, verified by Youtube’s algorithm.
Youtube started off in 2005 as a video service centered around user generated content (UGC) that anyone could upload, share, and comment on. While this still holds true, the introduction of video ads in 2007 meant content was in a larger need of scrutiny, as the tonality and freedom of the internet often does not correspond to what is considered advertiser friendly. Today, it is evident that Google is making an effort to create a more advertiser friendly video service, something that is negatively affecting business for the “traditional” UGC side of Youtube. This conflict, which is also known as the adpocalypse, has meant a significant decrease in ad revenue, especially for the more “edgy” channels. Advertisers have been given more freedom to choose in what type of context their ads will be placed – thus steering away from content including profanity or sensitive issues. This move is arguably pushing creators to other services, eg Amazon’s Twitch and potentially Facebook Watch. Despite this, Youtube continues to grow as it transitions from UGC to AVOD. Being ranked the 2nd most visited website (after Google) in 2017, its bargaining power as an advertising platform remains strong. On home turf, Mediavision’s latest analysis of the Swedish video market shows Youtube as the country’s most viewed online video service – in all age groups, with an increased preference among young.
A similar controversy has been surrounding video content on Facebook during the past year, with advertisers questioning the robustness of Facebook’s content verification procedures. Facebook has also announced hiring more people for manual review of advertisements, following the Russian involvement in the US presidential election through Facebook ads. Furthermore, with the introduction of video ads in 2014, and mid-roll ads in the beginning of 2017, Facebook began a similar journey to that of Youtube – from UGC to AVOD. However, unlike Youtube, Facebook has not focused primarily on video from the beginning. Thus, Facebook has been able to work with issues regarding content review while the video vertical is still a rather small-scale enterprise compared to that of Youtube. The introduction of Facebook Watch on the US market in August, marks a clear approach to video; ie separating the more free form UGC from the more commercially produced content included under the Watch tab. Facebook Watch is seemingly looking to emulate a more traditional broadcasting approach to its ad business, according to reports from the service’s potential ad buyers.
Since Facebook Watch has yet to spread outside the US, a Nordic comparison with Youtube is not possible. The question remains whether Facebook will be able to challenge Youtube’s position as the dominant AVOD service for advertisers in the Nordics. Yet, focusing on the Nordic markets, Mediavision is following the progression of these services in relation to consumer interest, overall video consumption and market growth.Läs mer
On the other side of the Atlantic, mergers and acquisitions within the media industry continue to make headlines. One is AT&T’s purchase of Time Warner that is being blocked by the US Justice Department (DOJ) on antitrust grounds. Another is the potential sale of 21st Century Fox. Due to the recent impediments in the AT&T-Time Warner merger, speculations have arisen that this would negatively impact the interest from Comcast, Disney, and Sony in continuing their pursuit of a Fox deal. However, according to sources, talks are still ongoing between Fox and Comcast, as well as with Disney. Furthermore, AT&T and Time Warner have extended their merger agreement, from end-of-year 2017, to April 22nd. Before then, AT&T intends to “vigorously contest the DOJ’s allegations” and expresses confidence to win in court; ultimately resulting in a successful merger of the two companies.
On home turf, both local and global VOD actors continue to invest in Nordic drama. Most recently, Hulu acquired the US distribution rights to Midnattssol (Sweden) and Gidseltagningen (Denmark). Meanwhile, public service broadcaster SVT and MTG’s leading local SVOD service Viaplay, who jointly produce the high-profile drama series “Vår tid är nu”, announced that the series will be renewed for a third season. The announcement was made even though the first season has yet to reach its conclusion. This is akin to Netflix’s strategy of greenlighting multiple seasons of new drama series in advance, something which is relatively new to the Swedish market. It remains to be seen whether the series will attract interest from abroad; something SVT and Viaplay would no doubt welcome.
In other news, linking back to our last newsletter (17th November); the single most popular e-sports event franchise among Swedes is coming to Stockholm: Dreamhack. Meanwhile, Dreamhack owner MTG has set up a new $30 million investment fund, specifically targeting smaller companies in e-sports, online gaming and game-focused virtual and augmented reality.Läs mer
The Swedish gambling authority Lotteriinspektionen has yet again reported that gambling operators regulated abroad have increased their share of the Swedish market. According to Lotteriinspektionen, non-Sweden regulated operators, who offer their products exclusively online, currently command 25% of the Swedish gambling market (gross winnings revenue). For the first three quarters of 2017, the overall market increased by 3% compared to the same period last year. In this period, non-Sweden regulated operators grew by 11% while operators regulated in Sweden reported zero growth as a group. Thus, the proposition to implement a new license-based system in Sweden, encouraging foreign-based companies to move to Sweden and operate under Swedish regulations, is becoming ever more urgent. The current goal is to have a new system in place by January 1, 2019.
However, not only operators regulated abroad are growing online. Operators regulated in Sweden are also increasingly positioning themselves online. During the first three quarters of 2017, state-owned Svenska Spel saw an increase in online revenue by 15% while land-based gambling revenue decreased by 5%. Similarly, horse racing monopolist ATG saw an increase in online gambling revenue by 16% and a decrease in land-based gambling revenue by 8%.
While the aim of a future license system certainly is to attract foreign-based operators targeting the Swedish market to also move to Sweden, the rapid shift to online gambling could actually have the opposite effect, incentivizing currently Sweden-regulated operators to set up shop off-shore instead (e.g. Malta).
Examples of the latter have recently occurred in the Netherlands, another European gambling market in a similar situation. Just like in Sweden, a new gambling regulatory system is proposed to be in effect by January 2019. The proposed system will make it possible for off-shore gambling operators to apply for a license from Kansspelautoritet, the gambling regulatory body in the Netherlands. Licensees will then enjoy all the perks that come with a license, at the cost of paying Dutch company taxes on their gross earnings revenue instead of Maltese taxes (for instance). On the other hand, operators who are already regulated in the Netherlands might be able to move the bulk of their business elsewhere, since a prerequisite for obtaining a Dutch online gambling license is to only have some form of physical presence in the country.
As a result, several incumbents are now preparing their move to Malta, making the island their base ahead of January 2019. Depending on what is considered sufficient to meet the Dutch requirement of a “physical presence”, it might potentially sway operators towards fully operating under a Maltese gambling license, and not a Dutch one. This is certainly an unintended effect of the proposed gambling regulatory system in the Netherlands, as it would be in Sweden.
Mediavision continues to follow the development of the Swedish gambling market closely. In December 2017, a full-year analysis of the Swedish gambling industry will be published, focusing in particular on the online and foreign-based operators.Läs mer
October was an eventful month in the world of e-sports with a multitude of events and tournaments. Major events included League of Legends World Championship (LoL WC) 2017, DreamHack Denver 2017, EPICENTER 2017 and 2017 ESL One Hamburg. The latter attracted 20,000 on site visitors and 25 million unique online viewers worldwide over two days (October 28-29), corresponding to a 250% increase in viewership compared to the previous ESL One in Frankfurt 2016. These numbers were achieved through broadcasting the event on multiple video streaming platforms, such as Twitch and the Chinese service HuomaoTV, but also through pushing video content on social media like Facebook and Twitter. Clips on social media generated 38 million impressions from around 8 million unique users for ESL One Hamburg content, an increase by 50% compared to ESL One in Frankfurt 2016.
Mediavision has been following the development of Nordic e-sports, both the consumption and the market, for some time (see the 2016/17 E-sports/gaming analysis). Our most recent analysis shows that among popular e-sports events, tournaments, and leagues, DreamHack is rated the most appealing by Swedish e-sports and gaming viewers. Approximately 3 out of 10 viewers state interest in following the event. This interest was reflected during DreamHack Masters Malmö, held in late September through to October 2017. DreamHack viewership broke previous records with 31 million unique viewers worldwide, thus becoming the most viewed DreamHack event to date. Other recent events, such as LoL WC 2017, scored lower in terms of interest among Swedish consumers of e-sports/gaming, despite being a far more popular event worldwide.
In 2016, the finals of LoL WC reached 43 million unique viewers – a number very likely to have been beaten by this year’s edition of the tournament, which ended November 4. Viewership figures for LoL WC 2017 are expected to be announced in the next few weeks. Overall, new record-breaking viewership numbers across the board solidify the view of e-sports as a global phenomenon that is rapidly gaining momentum, and becoming ever more commercialized. However, despite being an inherently digital and global market, e-sports does have certain local niches – one being Swedes’ preference for DreamHack. As the industry keeps growing and maturing, local markets and preferences will no doubt be of increased importance.Läs mer
Earlier this year Facebook announced that they are adjusting their algorithm that decides what videos are shown in users’ news feeds to put a larger emphasis on longer videos. According to a report by Wochit, videos that exceed 90 seconds attract almost twice as much engagement, which in turn has set in motion a trend where publishers release longer videos. Besides the increase in engagement, the introduction of midroll ads earlier this year has given publishers an increasing financial incentive to produce longer videos.
Snapchat CEO Evan Spiegel appears to have had a change of mind regarding targeted ads, he has previously expressed that he finds retargeting and targeted ads creepy. However, Snapchat is taking their first step towards performance-based advertising. To this end, Snapchat is giving marketers the ability to employ a tool that makes ads targeted and trackable, called Snap Pixel. Thus, through the tool, Snapchat is hoping to up its appeal to advertisers in the harsh competition with Google and Facebook.
YouTube TV, Google’s streaming platform for traditional TV channels in the US, is launching as an app for Android TV devices and Xbox One devices. Youtube has stated that more than half of all time spent watching Youtube TV is done through a Chromecast on a TV-screen. In total, Youtube is clocking over 100 million hours of watch time on TVs on an average day.
The Olympics in Pyeongchang 2018 is set to be the first ‘fully digital’ Olympics according to Discovery owned broadcaster Eurosport who recently unveiled their all-screen strategy. An example of this, in order to reach a younger audience, Eurosport has set up a partnership with Snapchat to provide behind-the-scenes and user-generated content. Apart from the Snapchat deal, Eurosport will also collaborate with some of Europe’s biggest digital influencers.
In 2015 Spotify introduced video as a means of supporting their core business and drive additional revenue. The intention was never to take on Netflix and Amazon, but to make money in a way that doesn’t involve expensive royalties. The music streaming giant also announced several video partnerships including Disney, NBC and Turner. However, Spotify is now abandoning their investment in original video and have instead begun exploring new potential formats.Läs mer
Swedish law dictates that companies are not allowed to run gambling ads. However, several media houses have ignored the law, claiming that it collides with EU regulations. This week, the supreme administrative court (Högsta Förvaltningsdomstolen) decided to not take up the rulings against two media companies made in the second highest administrative court (Kammarrätten). The Swedish Gambling Authority (Lotteriinspektionen) takes this as a confirmation that Swedish law applies and does not collide with EU regulations, hoping that this decision will set a precedent for the many similar ongoing cases in different courts around the country.
As such, Lotteriinspektionen has stated that they expect both media and gambling companies to cease running their ads. Foreign media companies broadcasting from overseas remain unaffected, such as Discovery Networks and MTG. However, with less than a year to go before the planned re-regulation of the Swedish gambling market, it is uncertain whether this latest development will have any effect in practice.
This week also saw several of the major Sweden-listed gambling companies presenting their Q3 reports, and it is clear that the gambling sector is going strong overall. Most companies report significant economic growth in their quarterly reports, with positive development on the stock market as a result. Gambling operator Leo Vegas reports an organic growth of 33%, with total revenue increasing by 40% up to 55.6 MEUR (39.7). Prior to publishing their Q3 report, Leo Vegas also announced the acquisition of competitor Royal Panda. Royal Panda, like Leo Vegas, is especially strong in casino, and has a big presence mainly in the UK market. Kindred’s (Unibet parent) quarterly figures exceeded analysts’ expectations while hinting of a strong fourth quarter as well. Kindred reports an all-time high gross winnings revenue of 193.6 million GBP (142.3).
Operator Mr Green’s quarterly figures exceeded analysts’ expectations as well, but not to the same degree as Kindred. Mr Green reports an increase in total revenue of 28.4% up to 295.1 MSEK (229.9). Mr Green also improved their EBITDA margin by 7.6%, which in absolute numbers equal an increase by 191% up to 50.6 MSEK (17.4). The fourth major Swedish operator Betsson, however, reports a quite modest third quarter with an increase in organic growth of 2% and total revenue increasing by 11% up to 1180.6 MSEK (1063.3). Betsson reports a decrease in operating profit (EBIT) by -21%.
Companies Net Ent and Evolution Gaming, who develop games for the operators to distribute to consumers, have had a positive quarter as well. Net Ent’s figures came in slightly higher than estimated by analysts, the operating margin of 39% being roughly 2 percentage points above expectations. Total revenue for Q3 2017 increased by 12.3% up to 401 MSEK (357). Evolution Gaming reports an increase in operating revenue by 56% up to 45.7 MEUR (29.2). Evolution Gaming also reports an improved EBITDA margin of 47.7%. which equals an EBITDA increase of 56% to 21.8 MEUR (10.8) in absolute numbers.
This week several media companies have published their quarterly reports. Swedish media conglomerate MTG reported turnover figures that exceeded analysts’ expectations. However, what attracted the most attention was the performance of MTGx, MTG’s division dealing in digital entertainment. While MTGx turnover more than doubled to 798 MSEK (321), the acquisition of German games developer Innogames accounts for a clear majority of the large increase. The organic growth for MTGx was a more modest 39%. Also, MTGx has yet to record a profit. The operating loss amounted to 38 MSEK during the third quarter, a result that, once again, was helped through the inclusion of Innogames. Without Innogames, MTGx would have recorded a loss of 95MSEK. In other words, the organic operating margin for MTGx in the quarter was around -21%. MTG’s share price took a hit following the news, but has since recovered and is currently at a 3-year high.
Com Hem group reported a relatively strong third quarter, with an overall increase in turnover by 36% to 1,780 MSEK (1,309). However, this is mostly due to the inclusion of Boxer revenue figures in this year’s quarter. The organic growth (i.e. excluding Boxer) was 3.6%. Com Hem reports a record breaking quarter in terms of new unique customers, with an increase of 11,000 new unique customers to a total of 972 000. Conversely, Boxer recorded a decrease of 9,000 unique customers. Com Hem subscriptions for digital tv and broadband increased by 6,000 and 12,000 respectively. Boxer recorded a positive development in the broadband segment, with an increase of 5,000 broadband subscriptions, but a net loss of 6,000 digital TV subscriptions. In other words, the net effect for the Com Hem group on the digital TV side was 0 in total number of subscriptions. Com Hem management has suggested a 50% increase in dividends for 2018 and the stock market reacted positively to the news, with Com Hem’s share price having risen by 7% since and now at a new all-time high.
Streaming giant Netflix reported a mixed bag of news, relative to their extremely strong record over the last few years and the continued high expectations. Overall, the company reported an increase in streaming revenue by 33% year-on-year (YOY). The driving force behind the increased revenue is a 5.3 million net addition in subscriptions during the third quarter (YOY). In the US, the number of subscriptions increased by 850,000 to a total of 52.8 million, while subscriptions outside the US increased by 4.5 million. In total, Netflix now has 109.3 million globally (including US). These figures beat analysts’ estimates, especially for subscriptions, but also slightly above the mark for expected revenue. However, Netflix’ earnings per share (EPS) came in lower than expected, and the company continues to operate with a large negative cash flow (-$465 million). Looking forward, Netflix announced that they will spend between $7 and $8 billion on content, with around 25% being invested in original content. Approximately half of all Netflix’ upcoming original productions are non-US productions. During the fourth quarter, Netflix will roll out price increases to existing subscribers in the US and other territories. Netflix share price initially rose following the report, but has since fallen and looks set to end the week at a lower level than prior to the report.
Ericsson recently published its annual ConsumerLab report. In the report, Ericsson reveals a positive outlook on the future of virtual reality (VR) – and specifically its role in video on-demand (VOD) viewing. According to the report, which includes respondents from over 40 countries, the global penetration of VR devices is roughly at 10%, and 25% of respondents plan to get one (some of which already have one, i.e. not only non-holders). In comparison, according to Mediavision’s analysis, during the third quarter of 2017, VR device penetration among Swedish households was at approximately 8%. This corresponds to an increase of +14% since the fourth quarter of 2016.
Among other things, Ericsson’s report points towards the social aspect that VR can bring to video on-demand (VOD) viewing, for instance being in the audience of a VR concert with other VR users. However, for consumer interest to really take off, there are still several obstacles holding VR back, such as headsets being prohibitively expensive and limited content. According to the report, a third of consumers would be more interested in VR if their TV and video provider offered a VR content bundle, something which is yet to be seen. And even though Ericsson is optimistic about the prospects of VR to pick up the pace, not everyone seems to share the analysis. A few days ago, Nokia announced they are to cease production of their VR camera Ozo, only launched last year, parting ways with 310 employees in the process.
As discussed in an earlier blog post, augmented reality (AR) currently seems a likelier market to take off rather than VR. However, some of the issues with VR are being addressed and the market is getting more competitive, despite Nokia handing over the reins to others. With the increased competition, more consumer-friendly VR devices are now popping up. Facebook is launching a stand-alone version of their Oculus headset called Oculus Go at a lower price than its predecessor, and without the need for expensive hardware to run it. Also, Microsoft is launching a range of mixed reality headsets from different PC manufacturers like Dell, Hewlett-Packard and Lenovo – increasing competition and opening up for a less expensive VR experience than competitors like Sony, Oculus, and HTC Vive.
Based on recent events, the next step for gargantuan OTT actors, like Netflix and Amazon, to conquer even larger market shares seems to be locally produced content. The trend of streaming giants producing local content is certainly gaining momentum. Netflix’ first Italian original production, Suburra, premieres today (October 6th). The series is produced by Cattleya, the same company that created Gomorrah, which premieres its third season later this fall on HBO Nordic.
Furthermore, having recently announced Nordic original Störst av allt (Quicksand), Netflix is clearly making strides in Europe. But the trend is catching on closer to its US home turf too. Netflix has struck a deal with a Canadian organization to spend $500 million on local programming over a five-year period and set up a Canadian production company, aptly called Netflix Canada. According to Mediavision, approximately half of all upcoming Netflix original productions (as of September 2017) are local productions, i.e. produced outside of the U.S.
Amazon also walks along the path of “glocalization”, just having announced its first UK original drama production called Fearless. Fearless is a legal conspiracy thriller starring Helen McCrory and Michael Gambon produced by Mammoth Screen.
In other news, the top 3 social media platforms among Nordic users; Facebook, Instagram, and Snapchat, have all launched new functionalities. Snapchat continues to add to their AR offer with an integrated art viewing functionality. Instagram releases clickable ads in posts, facilitating sales of clothing, for instance, seen in pictures on Instagram. Facebook announced they will hire 1,000 new people to review ads, in an attempt to make it more difficult for advertisers and organizations to manipulate Facebook’s ad platform. This news came shortly after Facebook disclosed that fake Russian-backed accounts purchased about $150,000 of political ads between 2015 and 2017, a lot of which was aimed at influencing voters in the 2016 US presidential election.Läs mer
Foreign based gambling operators, such as Bet365, Kindred (Unibet parent) and Betsson are commanding a continuously bigger slice of the Swedish gambling market pie. According to Sweden’s gambling authority, Lotteriinspektionen, the foreign based firms grew their total gross winnings revenue (turnover after payout of gamblers’ winnings) by 17 percent during H1 2017 on a yearly basis, obtaining a 24% share of the Swedish market. At the same time, operators regulated in Sweden, such as Svenska Spel and ATG, reported neither positive nor negative growth, thus losing in market shares.
Ahead of the upcoming re-regulation of the Swedish gambling industry, there is an ongoing race among the many different stakeholders on the market to position themselves, leading to extensive marketing campaigns and a strong focus on customer acquisition and engagement. In this post, we will take a closer look at the two most important gambling verticals for foreign based operators, i.e. online casino and sports betting.
Mediavision has previously noted that the online casino vertical currently works as the main growth engine among foreign based operators. This is consistent with reports from the two biggest publicly listed foreign based operators, Kindred and Betsson, as both have a majority share of their gross winnings revenue generated by casino games, at 51 and 74 percent respectively, during Q2 2017.
However, several casino focused operators, such as Leovegas and Mr Green, have started to put an increased emphasis on sports betting, both having launched their sportsbooks late in H1 2016. Most major foreign based operators now offer both casino games and sports betting, attempting to cater to a broader audience (increased own customer base) and to satisfy a greater range of their own players’ gambling demands (increased ARPU). This is certainly also true for other gambling verticals, mainly bingo, poker and horse racing, although to a lesser extent.
One reason for gambling operators to offer both casino and sports betting is age. During the first half of 2017, both foreign based sports betting (i.e. excluding Svenska Spel) and online casino generated 4 percent in monthly reach among 18-74-year-old Swedes, respectively, according to Mediavision’s data. However, among young (18-24) foreign based sports betting attracted 6% on a monthly basis, compared to 4% for online casino. This suggests that offering sportsbooks has a greater potential as a gateway to attract the youngest group of gamblers to your own brand.
This far, the overlap of online casino gamblers and sports punters (Svenska Spel excluded) is relatively small. During the first half of 2017, approximately a fifth of all who gambled on foreign based sports betting also gambled on online casino, and vice versa, during an average month. As several big brands become less niched, specialized primarily in one gambling vertical, and move towards becoming more of full-service, one-stop shops for punters, the aim is surely to increase these customer overlaps.
Currently, gambler overlaps vary significantly among different brands. Overall, top sports brands, such as Bet365 and Unibet, display a relatively low share of sports punters who also gamble on casino (both at approximately 10 percent) while big casino oriented brands, such as Leovegas and Mr Green, display shares of 20 percent and upwards. However, the share of casino gamblers that also gambled on sports is much higher for Bet365 and Unibet compared to competitors. Approximately 30 percent of casino gamblers on Bet365 and Unibet also gambled on sports via the same brand. In other words, all operators currently have the potential to improve overall engagement and gambling activity in their own customer bases.Läs mer
The annual Emmy Awards was held for the 69th time Sunday night. Hulu became the first ever purely digital actor to win the prestigious Outstanding Drama Series award for “The Handmaid’s Tale”. In total, Hulu won 10 awards out of 18 nominations, while Netflix and HBO won 20 and 29 awards respectively – racking up more than 200 nominations combined. Thus, it is evident that the streaming services are climbing ever closer to the upper echelons of Hollywood.
However, the streaming giants certainly wish to conquer more than just Hollywood. Both Netflix and HBO recently announced that they are drawing closer to start producing original series in the Nordics. Netflix’s first Nordic original is based on Malin Persson Giolito’s novel “Störst av allt” (called “Quicksand”). Scriptwriter is Camilla Ahlgren, who has previously worked on successful TV series “Bron”, with FLX set to produce the series. HBO’s new original series, “Gösta”, is written and to be directed by Swedish filmmaker Lukas Moodysson. Memfis Film will produce the series, which starts shooting next year. In other words, Nordic local TV and film awards, such as Swedish “Kristallen”, might also be subject for competition from the global actors moving forward.
These announcements follow what has previously been communicated by company representatives. During Goldman Sach’s annual Communacopia Conference, Netflix CFO David Wells spoke of the growing consumer interest in content produced in other parts of the world. Furthermore, the chief content officer of Netflix, Ted Sarandos, mentioned in an interview with Variety that the company is looking to go from producing 17 local (i.e. non-American) series this year, to creating somewhere between 70 and 100 within the next couple of years.Läs mer
A few days ago, Apple held its keynote during which the company released several new products and a brand-new focus on augmented reality (AR). Rather than virtual reality (VR), AR has proven to be the technology of choice for both Facebook and Snapchat – and now Apple.
According to Mediavision, approximately 7% of Nordic HHs have a VR device today, showing no growth so far during 2017. Thus, the Nordic VR market has yet to take off. Considering Apple being the market leading brand for both smartphones and tablets in the Nordics, Mediavision believes that the company focus on AR has the potential of being the spark that ignites a new mainstream consumer market with AR.
First Nordic company to try to capitalize on this development is Ikea, which recently announced the app; Ikea Place. Together with Apple, Ikea has developed an AR app to be released on September 19th which lets the user place furniture in the space in front of them using the camera on their Iphone/Ipad. Ikea expects this will boost sales as an increasing number of consumers are introduced to the technology of AR.
Moving forward, we will most likely see more commercial uses for AR technology. The Nordic consumers’ interest is surely set to peak as AR becomes readily available in peoples’ smartphones and tablets – reaching a majority of the Nordic population virtually instantaneously.
Mediavision follows the media industry development with a focus on digital media on the Nordic markets. We perform personalized projects and thorough analyses (many of which are found under Publications).Läs mer
The Swedish games industry has an impressive track record, including some of the world’s most popular gaming franchises, eg Minecraft and Battlefield. Much thanks to these games, the Swedish games market’s development has been explosive over the past few years. Swedish game developers generated a total revenue of more than 12 bn SEK (1.3 bn EUR) during 2016, according to The Swedish Games Industry. As a comparative example, this corresponds to more than half the size of the entire Swedish TV market in 2016 (22.6 bn SEK).
*Annual average exchange rates as reported by Riksbanken.
Source: The Swedish Games Industry
Compared to just four years ago, revenues have increased by approximately +250%, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +32% since 2012. Meanwhile, becoming an increasingly mature market, profit margins have also increased drastically during the same period. In 2016, the accumulated profit amounted to more than 8 bn SEK, corresponding to a profit margin of 66%, according to The Swedish Games Industry.
Over the past few years, the Swedish games industry has produced several AAA games (games with a high budget, comparable to blockbuster movies), while a globalized market and digitalized distribution has paved the way for more indie developers to reach out with their games as well. Most recently, the Malmö based game developer, and subsidiary to Ubisoft, Massive Entertainment was trusted with the project of creating games set in the universe of James Cameron’s upcoming Avatar movies.
In other news, US media company and broadcaster Viacom recently announced the release of a new subscription based video service; Paramount Plus. Denmark, Norway, and Sweden will be among the first markets in which the service will be launched. The service will only be available through traditional TV distributors in each country. In Sweden, customers of Com Hem, Bredbandsbolaget, and Canal Digital will be able to access Paramount Plus, starting October 11th. Another US actor advancing on the European market is Amazon, which recently launched the Amazon Prime Video service on Sony’s Playstation 4 console.Läs mer
Mediavision has compiled the subscriber development during the first half of 2017 for the five major traditional pay TV operators in the US, compared to that of OTT service Netflix.
*Includes: AT&T, Charter, Comcast, DISH, and Verizon.
Source: Company reports
Throughout the first half of 2017 subscribers have increasingly cut the cord to the top 5 traditional pay TV operators in the US; corresponding to a loss of approximately 1.5 million subscribers compared to end of year 2016. Meanwhile, Netflix added around 2.5 million subscriptions in the US alone during the same period (with an additional 7.7 million international subscriptions) – reaching the milestone of over 100 million subscribers worldwide in Q2 2017.
In attempts to counter this development, and eventually capitalize on the digitalization of the TV industry; several traditional operators are moving into the OTT space. AT&T’s online streaming service DirecTV Now added about 300’ subscriptions during H1 2017 vs end of year 2016, and DISH’s Sling TV added around 250’ in the same period. However, these services still have a long way to go before completely offsetting the drop in traditional pay TV subscriptions, and catch up with competitors like Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon. Furthermore, actors are trying to maintain consumer interest toward traditional pay TV channels through “skinny bundling”. This could mean either offering an á la carte selection of channels or excluding certain expensive channels (often sports) to offer packages at a cheaper price.
Further efforts to thwart traditional TV decline includes CNN setting out to reach a younger audience through a cooperation with Snapchat. Snapchat has also emphasized its focus on mobile video content, following a rather lengthy negative development on the stock market for the parent company Snap Inc.
In the Nordics however, there’s no clear decline of subscribers in the TV market, as IPTV and digital cable keep growing, offsetting the decline in satellite and terrestrial television subscriptions. Regardless, the effects of digitalization are increasingly visible in the Nordic markets as well, as most pay TV operators employ their own OTT service, or include an existing service in their own infrastructure (eg including Netflix or HBO Nordic in set top boxes or own apps).Läs mer
The summer has been an eventful one in the media industry, yet how has traditional TV performed throughout the Nordics?
In Sweden between week 26-31, time spent watching traditional TV decreased in the population by -9% vs the same period last year. Furthermore, the drop among young (15-24 year-olds) was -24% year-on-year (YOY), resulting in an average daily traditional TV viewing time of just around 30 minutes throughout these weeks. However, for 2016 the period included the final stages of the UEFA Euros won by Portugal in mid July – which partly explains the decreased viewing in 2017.
The drop in viewing has affected all of the major broadcasters, even though only SVT and TV4 broadcasted the UEFA Euros in 2016. MTG experienced the largest drop among young with -43% YOY in average daily viewing time.
In Finland, July showed a similarly negative development, with a viewing decrease among young even more significant than in Sweden. For the entire population, a viewing decrease of -7% July 2017 vs July 2016 was recorded, while viewers aged 10-24 decreased their viewing by a whopping -33% compared to last year. For these younger viewers, this resulted in an average daily viewing time throughout July of 30 min, similar to the amount of time Swedish youngsters spend watching traditional TV.
In Q2, Danish broadcaster TV2 recorded a share of viewing (SOV) equal to that of public service broadcaster DR, who saw a decreased SOV compared to the same period last year – no doubt affected by the UEFA Euros in 2016.
Source: Kantar Gallup
While traditional TV viewing is on the decline across the Nordics, global online video actors are growing at an increasing rate. Facebook reported a better than expected Q2 with a more than 70% increase in profits vs Q2 2016. This news was followed by the limited release of the dedicated video service; “Facebook Watch”, marking the start of a head-on competition between Facebook and Youtube, as well as traditional TV actors with presence in the AVOD sector.
In the past week, Disney was in the news for withdrawing their content from Netflix after acquiring majority ownership of Major League Baseball’s tech subsidiary BAMTech for 1.5 bn USD. The acquisition is an outspoken move towards releasing OTT services dedicated to distribution of Disney material within both sports, reality, and fiction. Furthermore, BAMTech has a close connection to League of Legends creators Riot Games, working on the game publisher’s own streaming platform. Thus, the acquisition puts Disney, and specifically its sports subsidiary ESPN, in a position of power within the e-sports industry – following ESPN’s recent investments in e-sports.Läs mer
Google visade nyligen upp sin nya lösning för VR-annonsering; Advr. Prototypen visar en kub i användarens synfält som vid interaktion visar en annons. Lösningens syfte är att främja utveckling av annonsfinansierade VR-applikationer till smarttelefoner som exempelvis kan användas i Googles egna VR-enheter; Google Cardboard eller Daydream.
Samtidigt har Facebook nått 2 miljarder månatligen aktiva användare. En milstolpe som innebär en fördubbling sedan 2012. Nyheten kommer hand i hand med att Facebook knutit avtal med Fox Sports om distribution av Champions League i USA. Sändningarna kommer att ske på Fox Sports Facebook-sida. Affären är endast en i ledet av såväl sport- som ryktade TV-seriesatsningar från sociala medie-jätten, något som togs upp i Nyhetsbrevet v22.
Ett annat medieslag på uppgång är podcasts, som enligt prognos från IAB väntar stark tillväxt under 2017. Totalt väntas amerikansk podcastmarknad uppnå 220 MUSD under 2017, en tillväxt på +85% jämfört med 2016. Under 2016 har majoriteten av annonspengarna genererats av upplästa annonser (60%), snarare än förproducerade reklamavbrott av tredje part (40%).Läs mer
Sommaren är på ingång. Det betyder att spelmässan E3 varit i Los Angeles samtidigt som e-sportevenemangen Dreamhack Summer och ESL One Cologne (Köln) snart inleds.
Under veckan som gått pågick världens största årliga branschevenemang för gamingbranschen, E3, i Los Angeles Convention Center i Kalifornien, USA. Företag som Sony, Ubisoft, Nintendo och Electronic Arts visade upp nya spel och projekt under utveckling, allt för att bygga intresse för framtida spelsläpp. Utöver företagspresentationer fanns även interaktiva moment för besökande mässdeltagare, exempelvis ESL:s ”E3 e-sports zone”, en scen dit besökare kan gå för att se professionella spelare tävla i såväl nya som gamla spel. E3-mässan har, utöver stora besökartal, också en stor skara tittare online, där företagens speldemonstrationer och presentationer livesänds gratis på populära plattformar som Twitch och Youtube. Ett exempel på mässans växande popularitet är att den 2016 sammanlagt hade över 42 miljoner unika tittare på Twitch; mer än en fördubbling mot 2015 års notering på 21 miljoner unika tittare – nu kvarstår att se om tillväxten kan upprepas under årets upplaga av spelmässan.
Något som till stor del utelämnas under E3, men som utgör ett av de viktigaste tillväxtområdena inom gamingbranschen, är e-sport (se Mediavisions analys av E-sports & Gaming 2016/17), vars stora sommarturneringar och evenemang nu närmar sig. Exempelvis inleds den MTG-ägda digitala festivalen Dreamhack Summer på lördag (17-20 juni) i Jönköping, ett evenemang som för samman TV- och datorspelskonsumenter med e-sportproffs och profiler från branschen.
Några veckor efter Dreamhack hålls turneringen ESL One Cologne (7-9 juli), med fullständigt fokus på e-sport, och i synnerhet spelet Counter Strike: Global Offensive. Evenemanget nådde hela 27 miljoner unika tittare via sina livesändningar både 2015 och 2016, medan man under 2014 års upplaga endast hade ca 3 miljoner tittare. Om tittarsiffrorna för 2017 års upplaga av Intel Extreme Katowice, en e-sportturnering som likar ESL One, ger någon fingervisning med sina 46 miljoner unika tittare, förväntas en rejäl tillväxt från 2015 och 2016 års tittarsiffror även för ESL One Cologne.
Just Intel och ESL har sedan många år ett nära samarbete, som nu dessutom fördjupas ytterligare. Samarbetet innebär i praktiken att Intel kommer förse ESL med hårdvara för både spelande och distribution under alla ESL:s e-sportevenemang, samtidigt som de tillsammans lanserar konceptet ”Intel’s Grand Slam”, där en vinstsumma på 1 MUSD delas ut till det eller de lag som lyckas vinna minst 4 av 10 ESL/Intel-turneringar från och med ESL One Cologne i år.Läs mer
I Mediavisions senaste pressutskick fastslogs att rörlig bild är stort i sociala medier.
Under årets första kvartal använde 5,5 miljoner svenskar sociala medier en genomsnittlig dag. Av dessa tittar två tredjedelar på videoinnehåll via dessa tjänster.
Mest använda sociala medietjänsten är Facebook. Bolaget meddelade nyligen att man utökar sina satsningar på rörlig bild genom partnerskap med underhållningsfokuserade innehållskreatörer som Buzzfeed och Vox Media, enligt Reuters. Facebook har också inlett samarbete med ESL gällande e-sportsändningar, där man får unika sändningsrättigheter till CS:GO-ligan Rank S. Bara lite mer än ett år har gått från att Facebook öppnade upp funktionen att livesända video på plattformen för sina användare och man fortsätter alltså att ta snabba steg i riktning mot rörlig bild.
Twitter är en annan aktör som investerar allt mer i rörlig bild – något som omnämnts i tidigare nyhetsbrev. Utöver dessa satsningar i sport, e-sport och nyheter tillkännagavs det i veckan att Twitter kommer livesända BBC:s brittiska valdebatter direkt i applikationen. Då Twitter ofta är hem för politiska diskussioner blir tjänstens steg mot TV-broadcasting i ämnet än mer intressant. Twitters största intäktstillväxt ligger nu inom just rörlig bild, medan man i övrigt för första gången tappade i totala intäkter under Q1 2017. Så, i konkurrens med tjänster som just Facebook, Instagram, och i förlängningen även Youtube, väntar vi spänt på konsumenternas reaktion till Twitters steg mot AVOD. Kommer konsumenten gå till Twitter för förstahandsinformation via livesändningar av exempelvis politiska debatter eller nyhetssändningar, eller förblir tjänsten mer ett kärl för multi-tasking och second screen-beteende?
En annan högst videofokuserad tjänst är Snapchat, vars moderbolag Snap enligt rapport står i färd att utveckla egna drönare, då det nyligen uppdagades att man köpt drönarbolaget Ctrl Me Robotics under fjolåret. Snap, som börsnoterades 2 mars i år, har tidigare lanserat kameraglasögonen Spectacles, vilka först nu kommer till Europa. Utvecklingen av egna drönare är alltså ytterligare ett steg mot att bredda företaget från endast applikationer till att också tillverka hårdvara, helt i linje med Snaps uttalade ambition att vara ett ”kameraföretag”, snarare än ett socialt nätverk. En till synes nödvändig utveckling med tanke på resultaten av första kvartalet för Snap Inc. där det uppdagades att tillväxten för Snapchat saktat in avsevärt och att man är långt från lönsamhet. Detta efter att Facebook och Instagram delvis kopierat Snapchats centrala användarfunktioner (”Stories”) under det senaste året.
Vidare på livestreaming-temat har Schibsted inlett samarbete med den svenska tjänsten Bambuser som satsar stort på sin B2B-lösning för livestreaming av rörlig bild, kallad Iris. Plattformen ska nu integreras i Schibsteds publicistplattform och kommer således användas av bl a SVD och Aftonbladet.
Under årets första kvartal kan vi konstatera att de amerikanska operatörsjättarna AT&T, Verizon och Comcast, liksom mediehusen Disney, 21st Century Fox, Time Warner och CBS rapporterar spridda skurar i omsättningsutveckling. Comcast redovisar högst procentuell försäljningsökning, mycket tack vare god utveckling för helägda NBCUniversal som under kvartalet släppte ett flertal framgångsrika filmer, däribland Fast & Furious 8. CBS å andra sidan visar ett relativt stort tapp i omsättning under Q1 jmf samma period föregående år. Minskningen beror huvudsakligen på minskade annonsintäkter i och med tappet av Super Bowl-sändningarna till 21st Century Fox; vilket i sin tur uppges vara en av huvudanledningarna till varför de sistnämnda visade tillväxt. Generellt ligger tillväxten i områden som OTT, innehållsproduktion och sporträttigheter, medan pressen nedåt fortsätter inom traditionell kabel-TV.
Följaktligen är det de ”nya” aktörerna, utan hemvist inom mer traditionella medieaffärer, som uppvisar högst tillväxt. Google och Facebooks genererar fortsatt rejäl tillväxt i annonsintäkter, samtidigt som Netflix fortsätter öka på konsumentsidan, framförallt på marknader utanför hemmamarknaden USA. Twitter, som den senaste tiden gjort stora satsningar på rörlig bild (både inom sport, e-sport, och nyheter) minskar dock i omsättning, vilket också lett till en hel del diskussioner om Twitters framtida utsikter som annonsplattform. Värt att notera är att Twitters investeringar i video genererade högre absolut tillväxt än i något annat segment, men det kunde alltså inte kompensera för relativt stora tapp i annonsintäkter på annat håll.
Inledningen av 2017 har varit en särskilt händelserik period för svensk spelmarknad. Den 31 mars presenterades regeringens spelutredning med förslag på hur en framtida svensk spelmarknad skulle kunna omregleras.
Mottagandet från branschen har överlag varit positivt, då aktörer från såväl statligt som maltesiskt håll har uttryckt ett generellt gillande av utredningens process och resultat. Men frågan är vilka som kommer att bli vinnare respektive förlorare på den marknad som beskrivs i rapporten.
Tydligt är att kasinospel så sakteliga tagit en allt större plats hos operatörerna. Detta kan bland annat illustreras av att var tionde reklamminut i TV utgjordes av varumärken inom onlinekasino under första kvartalet 2017.
Spelformen är extra lockande då den erbjuder stabilare marginaler och kontroll i jämförelse med sportspelens mer svängande utfall. Särskilt tydligt var detta under Q1, då leverantörer av sportspel, som exempelvis Kambi, rapporterade relativt låga marginaler – negativt påverkade av spelarvänliga sportresultat.
Stora operatörer som Kindred (moderbolag till Unibet) och Betsson fortsätter att göra tydliga satsningar på kasinogenren. Under första kvartalet lanserade Kindred domänen Storspelare.com, ett varumärke dedikerat till storsatsande kasinospelare. I Betssons fall ökade kasinospelens andel till 75% av bolagets totala intäkter – upp från 67%, Q1 2016.
Genrens tillväxt kan även härledas till utvecklingen av mer sofistikerade spelformer, inte minst inom live-kasino. Förutom att live-kasino potentiellt lockar fler spelare till kasinobordet har Mediavision sedan tidigare kunnat konstatera att live-spel även driver högre spelutgift inom såväl kasino som sport.
Ett bolag som tagit en stark position i live-genren är spelleverantören Evolution Gaming, som fortsätter att tuffa på mot högre intäkts- och värderingshöjder. Under Q1 2017 ökade bolaget omsättningen med 60% på årsbasis till ca 40 miljoner EUR. Den positiva utvecklingen har gett eko på börsen, där den ena köprekommendationen har avlöst den andra.
En annan börsfavorit är Leovegas, som levererade resultat över förväntan för Q1. Förutom att fokusera på onlinekasino rider bolaget även på en annan tillväxtvåg – det ökande spelandet via mobila enheter. Den mobilfokuserade strategin har hittills fallit ut väl och har, enligt egen utsago, bidragit till en lyckad lansering för bolaget på den danska marknaden.
Då onlinekasino hittills varit förbjudet att erbjuda för Sverigereglerade operatörer skulle den omreglering som föreslås av spelutredningen sannolikt rita om den svenska spelkartan avsevärt. Frågan är hur positivt inställda dagens utlandsreglerade kasinoaktörer blir till marknaden om de får tävla om kasinokunder med aktörer som Svenska Spel och ATG, som tillsammans alltjämt står för en majoritet av svensk spelmarknad.
Mediavision fortsätter att följa kampen om spelmarknaden mycket nära. Bland annat genom vår löpande konsument-tracking där vi intervjuar cirka 1 000 svenskar om sina spelvanor varje månad.
Discovery Networks meddelar att man gör organisationsförändringar i Norden, Twitter ökar sina investeringar i live-streaming, MTG fortsätter utveckla sina vertikaler för gaming och e-sport, HBO annonserar att man är i startgroparna för potentiellt fyra nya serier i Game of Thrones-universumet, och Magine TV läggs ner i Sverige.
I syfte att effektivisera transformationsprocessen minskar Discovery Networks antalet anställda i Danmark och Sverige med 18 respektive 30 personer. Discovery har sedan ett tag tillbaka kommunicerat större satsningar på sina digitala plattformar, inte minst i och med rättighetsköpen av både OS och svensk proffsfotboll – vars sändningar kommer ha Eurosport Player som huvudsaklig digital kanal.
Efter att, under drygt ett år, ha livesänt traditionell sport och sedermera e-sport (i form av partnerskap med MTG-ägda ESL), fortsätter Twitter sin satsning på livesänd rörlig bild. Ett tydligt exempel på detta är att man nyligen annonserat ett samarbete med Bloomberg Media som tar uttryck i ett livesänt nyhetsnätverk – via Twitter. Nyhetssändningarna kommer innehålla en blandning av UGC (User Generated Content) och material från professionella journalister. Detta är en intressant utveckling av vad ”live” kan innebära i sociala medier; från influencers till nyhetsrapportering, där hela spektrat från underhållning till allvar täcks.
Vidare har MTG i veckan ökat sin investering i det tyska mobilspelsföretagetet Innogames. Samtidigt har man, genom e-sportsorganisationen ESL skrivit avtal med det svenska VR-produktionsbolaget Wonderworld VR för unika livesändningar av ESL:s turneringar och event. ESL, som bl a anordnar några av världens största e-sportevent, kommer alltså livesända dessa i 360-video och virtual reality i en uttalad strategi att ge användare en mer premiumupplevelse än att endast se matcher via exempelvis Twitch eller Youtube.
Game of Thrones, som går mot sina sista två säsonger (totalt 15 avsnitt) med start i sommar, kommer med största sannolikhet leva vidare i form av spin-offer på originalserien. HBO, som ligger bakom grundserien, har nämligen kontaktat kreatörer bakom bl a Mad Men, The Leftovers, Godzilla, och Kick-Ass mm, för att utveckla fyra nya serier som utspelar sig i Game of Thrones-universumet. Meddelandet är väntat då serien länge varit en kassako för HBO, och en favorit bland såväl betalande som piratkopierande konsumenter.
Magine TV, den digitala TV-distributionstjänst som grundats i Sverige och sedan starten 2011 spridits till Storbritannien och Tyskland (med ytterligare verksamhet i t ex Asien), lägger nu ned sin distributionsverksamhet i Sverige. En anledning till nedläggningen är att man aldrig lyckades knyta till sig sändningsrättigheter till vare sig TV4 eller MTG, något som tros vara bidragande till att svenska konsumenter i hög utsträckning nobbat tjänsten.
I onsdags, 26 april, höll Mediavision ett frukostseminarium kring temat ”Globala utmaningar på svensk TV-marknad” på Scandic Anglais i Stockholm. Intresset var stort och det var många som ville höra om hur lokala aktörer planerar att möta ökad global konkurrens om tittare och rättigheter.
Seminariet inleddes med att Mediavisions VD, Marie Nilsson, gav en lägesrapport över svensk TV-marknad 2017 baserat på årets analys ”Swedish TV Market”, som släpptes i veckan. Marie konstaterade att tillväxten i OTT-tittande mer än kompenserar för tittartappet i traditionell TV och att pengarna i allt högre grad följer konsumenten. Globala aktörers försprång online och konsumentförflyttningen från traditionell TV till OTT har lett till att den lokala marknaden är inne i en transformationsfas på högvarv. Samtidigt väntas annonsintäkterna stå emot i broadcast under 2017, tack vare fortsatt hög räckvidd och prisökningar. Mer om detta finns att läsa i analysen ”Swedish TV Market 2017/18”.
Efter Maries dragning hölls en paneldiskussion kring utmaningar och möjligheter för lokal dramaproduktion på en global marknad. Panelen bestod av följande deltagare:
Lena Allerstam agerade moderator och ledde diskussionen som till stor del handlade om hur lokala aktörer ska agera för att konkurrera med globala jättar som Netflix och Amazon. Utöver konkurrens om tittaren råder stor konkurrens om innehåll, särskilt drama. I takt med att ”stor blir större” får lokala aktörer allt svårare att köpa in produktioner. Hur ska exempelvis TV4, MTG och SVT kunna mäta sig med Netflix innehållsbudget på 50 miljarder SEK för 2017?
Panelisterna var överens om att en satsning, från branschens sida, behövs för att utveckla och hålla kvar talang i landet. För att inte produktioner ska gå till exempelvis Amazon istället för lokala aktörer, som SVT och TV4, krävs ett lokalt samarbete och snabba, gemensamma åtgärder för både finansiering och skapandeprocess. Mycket av diskussionen cirkulerade således kring konsolidering och samarbeten över landsgränserna i Norden – för ökad konkurrenskraft. Dock är det ännu oklart vart marknaden är på väg, och hur det kommer att se ut framöver. Oortodoxa lösningar förväntas då marknaden fortfarande är inne i en prövoperiod, innan den stabiliseras och mognar.
Avslutningsvis var framtidsutsikten positiv bland panelisterna i och med en stark konjunktur och en högre konsumtion av rörlig bild än någonsin, men att det kommer krävas stora transformationsåtgärder av lokal industri för att förbli konkurrenskraftig på en global marknad.
Under veckan som gått har: Bonnier Broadcasting annonserat stora besparingar, Sky och HBO ingått globalt samarbete för dramaproduktion, och Facebook meddelat på sin F8-konferens att man tror starkt på Augmented Reality (AR).
Igår meddelade VD för Bonnier Broadcasting, Casten Almqvist, att omfattande besparingar ska genomföras, där bl a Nyhetsbolaget åter slås samman med TV4. Totalt ska åtgärderna ge 400 MSEK i minskade kostnader och 90 tjänster kommer försvinna. Nedskärningarna sker i olika led. Bl a minskas antalet riksreportrar från 24 till 18 och flera lokalredaktioner läggs ned. Vidare släcks två linjära TV-kanaler ned under hösten, TV4 Komedi och TV4 Fakta XL. Beskedet kommer i kölvattnet av ett tungt 2016 för C More, som i februari rapporterade en förlust på just 400 MSEK för det gångna året samtidigt som man förlorar sändningsrättigheterna till Allsvenskan och Superettan till Discovery från och med 2020.
Sky rapporterade nyligen en omsättningsökning på +11% till totalt 9,641 MGBP de senaste 9 månaderna. I samma rapport tillkännagavs ett produktionssamarbete med Time Warner-ägda HBO till ett värde av 250 MUSD. Samarbetet ska generera minst två dramaproduktioner årligen från och med 2018. I linje med både Amazon och Netflix, som vardera beräknas ha lagt 3 resp 5 mdr USD på innehåll 2016, satsar alltså även Sky och HBO på globala högkvalitativa dramaproduktioner. Det återstår nu att se om innehållet blir exklusivt för någon tjänst/kanal eller om de säljs till lokala aktörer världen över.
Under Facebooks årliga tech-konferens för utvecklare (F8) som hölls i veckan presenterade VD Mark Zuckerberg företagets framtidsplaner. Visionen lades fram med ett starkt fokus på immersive media – VR och AR – där AR tog absolut störst plats. Som ledsagare hoppas Facebook kunna, i ett första steg, tillgängliggöra tekniken för samtliga användare av Facebooks tjänster genom telefonkameran. I ett senare skede spår man en framtid av högteknologiska glasögon och/eller linser, i vilka Facebooks teknik för AR är integrerat. Diskussionerna om annonseringsmöjligheterna för AR har gått heta, och även om Zuckerberg själv tror på en successiv, och relativt långsam, konsument- och teknikutveckling på området, tros annonseringsmöjligheterna vara stora framöver.
Under veckan som gått har: Annonsörer fortsatt fly från Youtube, Discovery säkrat sändningsrättigheter för svensk professionell herrfotboll, och Spotify köpt upp filmtips-applikationen Mighty TV.
Något som troligtvis inte gått någon obemärkt förbi är att stora annonsörer som AT&T, Verizon, Pepsi, och Starbucks valt att lämna Youtube som annonsplattform eftersom annonser visats i anknytning till innehåll annonsörerna inte vill förknippas med. Enligt estimat från Nomura Instinet kan Google komma att förlora 750 MUSD på denna bojkott, motsvarande ca 7,5% av Youtubes estimerade omsättning under 2017.
Vidare stod det nyligen klart att Discovery vunnit budkriget kring rättigheterna till Allsvenskan och Superettan, och kommer således sända fotboll från Sveriges högsta ligor från och med 2020 i Kanal 5 och Eurosport. Enligt utsago ska affären ha kostat ca 3 miljarder SEK, motsvarande 540 MSEK per år, vilket innebär en fördubbling från det TV4-Gruppen betalar i dagsläget (245 MSEK/år). Planen är att fler än tidigare ska kunna ta del av professionell fotboll, vilket skulle innebära ett tydligt strategiskt steg bort från den premiumunderhållning Allsvenskan är idag.
För OTT planeras samtliga matcher läggas under Eurosport Player, medan lejonparten av de linjära TV-sändningarna visas av Eurosport. I Kanal5 kommer 8-10 stormatcher per säsong att sändas. Strategin är snarlik den Discovery nu implementerat för Eliteserien (tidigare Tippeligaen), alltså högstadivisionen för herrfotboll i Norge. Där tog Discovery över sändningsrättigheterna inför årets kommande säsong och en förhoppning där är att fotbollen ska bygga upp abonnentbasen för norska Eurosport Player.
Liksom i Sverige har Eurosport Player hittills haft svårt att locka kunder, med cirka 20 000 abonnenter i Sverige och mindre än hälften av det i Norge under 2016. Under Elitseriens tre första månader erbjuds abonnemang för 99 norska kronor per månad, för att därefter höjas till 149 kr per månad. Prishöjningar lär ske även i Sverige, men om exemplet i Norge är ledstjärnan kommer nivåerna alltså vara väsentligt lägre än vad det idag kostar att följa Allsvenskan via C More.
I en uttalad satsning på den annonsdrivna delen av tjänsten köpte Spotify i dagarna filmtipsapplikationen Mighty TV. Grundaren till appen, Brian Adams, som har en lång bakgrund inom adtech-området, kommer att bli Spotifys nye “VP of technology”. I och med detta hoppas Spotify kunna driva upp intäkterna för gratisversionen.
Enligt senaste siffror, rapporterade i maj 2016, omsatte Spotify nära 2 miljarder USD på abonnerande kunder 2015, medan gratisversionen endast stod för 222 MUSD. Detta ledde till att 90% av Spotifys intäkter under 2015 genererades av 31% av deras kunder. Denna obalans försöker man nu komma tillrätta med, delvis genom riktad annonsering baserad på kundbeteende – något man förutspår kommer förbättras av uppköpet av Mighty TV.
Både Spotifys satsning på annonsdrivet innehåll och Discoverys plan att nå fler tittare via ”mini-pay” eller ”gratis”-kanaler talar för en potentiell medieframtid med mindre premiumfokus än idag. Mediavision fortsätter att följa utvecklingen av mediebranschen på nära håll, dels i våra publikationer, men även i individuellt anpassade konsultuppdrag!
During the past week, the e-sports and gaming industry has been at the top of many news outlets. The tournament/event Intel Extreme Masters became the most watched e-sports event in history, Facebook ventured deeper into live-streaming of e-sports and gaming content and Youtube partnered with e-sports company FaceIT for streaming rights.
Run by MTG owned e-sports company Turtle Entertainment, the e-sports event and tournament Intel Extreme Masters in Katowice took place 25-26 of February and 3-5 of March 2017. The event had over 46 million unique viewers – thereby overtaking League of Legends World Championships in October 2016 as the most watched e-sport event in history. However, it is important to note that while League of Legends WC reached fewer viewers in total (43 million), it most probably had a higher peak viewership, since IEM Katowice hosted tournaments in three different games; LoL, CS:GO, and Starcraft II – segmenting viewership between the three. Nevertheless, it’s an accomplishment corresponding to a yearly increase of more than +35% viewership compared to 2016.
Furthermore, Facebook recently announced that they are releasing the feature of livestreaming directly from desktop to your followers/friends on Facebook. This is a definite step toward competing with e-sport actors such as Twitch.tv and Youtube Gaming. Meanwhile, Youtube partnered with e-sports company FaceIT, which was announced late last week as the biggest e-sports investment from the Google owned company to date. FaceIT runs the e-sports league “Esports Championship Series” (ECS) which will now be exclusively available on Youtube.
More on the development of the e-sports and gaming industry in the Nordics can be found in Mediavision’s latest analysis “E-sports & Gaming 2016/2017”, including unique insight into the development of both consumers and actors in the industry.
Sources: Company press releases, Reuters.
Under veckan som gått har: Facebook gjort intåg på sportmarknaden, en ny analys från Mediavision av marknaden för svensk och nordisk e-sport och gaming publicerats, Google visat sig ta än större andel av den digitala annonsmarknaden i USA, och Melodifestivalen gått i mål med tillväxt av unga tittare.
Univision, rättighetsägare till sändningar av den amerikanska fotbollsligan MLS, kommer livesända matcher på Facebook. Minst 22 matcher kommer livesändas gratis för samtliga användare, från Univisions Facebook-sida. Denna sportsatsning, i samband med att man tidigare slutit exklusiva avtal med stora aktörer inom e-sport, och även visat matcher från spanska La Liga, exponerar en ny satsning från Facebooks sida; livesport. Kan tjänstens 1,23 miljarder dagliga användare bidra med tillräckliga monetära incitament för Facebook att ge sig in i budgivningskrigen om de riktigt stora sporträttigheterna?
I en helt ny analys rapporterar Mediavision om svensk och nordisk marknad för e-sport och gaming. Tittarintresset har aldrig varit högre och daglig onlineräckvidd för e-sport/gaming ligger nu ca 33% högre än för traditionell sport i Sverige. Samtidigt står Sverige ut jämfört med övriga Norden, något som har ett flertal förklaringar. I Norden är Youtube den mest populära tjänsten för e-sport/gaming-innehåll, följt av Amazonägda Twitch.tv. Vidare, mycket tack vare Youtube, fortsätter Google ta än större andel av av digitala annonsintäkter i USA; nu uppe i 41%, enligt rapport från Emarketer.
Melodifestivalen innehar årligen några av de mest populära tv-sändningarna i Sverige. Under finalen 2017 lyckades produktionen dessutom stävja den generellt nedåtgående trenden i tittande på traditionell tv bland unga (15-24), med en ökning i rating jmf 2016 på drygt +31%.
Melodifestivalen har nu avgjorts och vi skickar Robin Bengtsson med låten “I Can’t Go On” till Ukraina i maj.
Som den folkfest den är, drar Melodifestivalen alltid höga tittarsiffror och hamnar därmed i toppen bland programmen med högst rating (finalen förra året hade tredje högst rating av alla program under året, tätt efter Kalle Anka och Eurovision). I år var inget undantag. I 3+ ökade den genomsnittliga ratingen för hela säsongen till 35,1 jämfört med 34,2 under 2016 års säsong; motsvarande en ökning på +3%. Finalavsnittet ökade starkare än så, från 36,9 till 39,9; motsvarande +8% YOY.
Tittartiden för årets säsong förblev stabil i 3+, men aningen nedåtgående trend jämfört med tidigare år. Endast bland 60+ ökade tittartiden, från 38,3 till 41,2 min; motsvarande +7% YOY. Liknande utveckling speglades i målgruppens rating; +10% YOY bland 60+.
För finalen ökade ratingen i samtliga målgrupper jämfört med förra årets final; 3+ ökade +8% YOY. Störst ökning återfanns i den målgrupp där traditionellt TV-tittande överlag avtar snabbast, 15-24; +31% YOY, från 19,7 till 25,9. Även i tittartid och tittartidsandel var 15-24 den målgrupp som ökade mest. 15-24-åringar tittade i genomsnitt 32,2 min på årets final, en ökning från 26 min förra året, motsvarande +24%. Tittartidsandelen uppgick till hela 93,5 procent på årets final jämfört med 75,9 på finalen 2016.
Klart är att Melodifestivalen fortsätter locka tittare på en i övrigt avtagande TV-marknad, och att årets säsong och framförallt final, lyckats attrahera den mest svårflörtade målgruppen 15-24.
Globala och digitala medieföretag har på senare tid dominerat nyhetsflödet. Börsnoteringen för Snap Inc. överträffade förväntningar och landade, natten till idag, på ett värde av totalt 217 miljarder SEK (24 miljarder USD). Youtube annonserar släppet av betal-TV-tjänsten Youtube TV, och Facebook offentliggör nya annonsmöjligheter för rörlig bild på plattformen.
Facebooks satsningar på annonsering i rörlig bild kommer sannolikt ha stort inflytande på den svenska marknaden då plattformen, tillsammans med Youtube, stod för drygt 70% av svenskarnas tittande på annonsfinansierade webb-TV-tjänster under Q4 2016.
Youtube TV kommer, utöver live-innehåll från stora traditionella TV-bolag, även sända innehåll från plattformens egna betaltjänst “Youtube Red”. Plattformen kan därav, i förlängningen, ses som ett försök att överbrygga klyftan mellan nya och gamla medier – mellan unga och äldre konsumenter. Nu återstår det att se hur framgångsrik tjänsten blir.
Annonsörer har länge eftersökt transparens gällande tittandemätningar på webb-TV-tjänster. Detta blir extra viktigt från aktörer som Youtube och Facebook som i Q4 2016 stod för drygt 70% av svenskarnas tittande på annonsfinansierade webb-TV-tjänster. Efter haveriet som var Facebooks överskattade tittarsiffror för ca ett halvår sedan öppnar Google nu dörrarna för det oberoende mätföretaget Media Rating Council att granska mätmetoderna som används på Youtube. Detta sker inte mer än två veckor efter att Facebook gjort detsamma.
Samtidigt går IRM ut med sin helårsrapport över 2016 där just webb-TV omnämns som en av de årligen snabbast växande kategorierna på hela den svenska annonsmarknaden.
Patent- och marknadsöverdomstolen har tidigare dömt Bredbandsbolaget till blockering av The Pirate Bay och Swefilmer, som tillgängliggör upphovsrättsskyddat material för allmänheten. Samtidigt konsumerade nära en fjärdedel (24%) av Sveriges befolkning (15-74 år) piratkopierat innehåll månatligen under Q4 2016. Trots detta avstår nu Telia från att blockera dessa siter, med argumentet att domen mot Bredbandsbolaget var ett enskilt beslut.