Newsletter 29th of April: Spotify Shows Nordic Subscriber Growth in Q1


29 April 2020

Expectations are high for Spotify’s Q1 earnings call today. Early reports state that music streaming has decreased globally amid the Corona pandemic, partly due to less commuting and music played in the hospitality industry. However, global revenues for Spotify are expected to increase. Figures from Mediavision’s Nordic analysis Q1 2020 show subscriber growth, though not in parity with Spotify’s expected global performance.

Prior to Spotify’s earnings call on Wednesday, analysts at Alphastreet expect Spotify’s global revenues to increase by 17%. The company’s own global outlook for Q1 estimates a year-over-year growth in monthly active users and premium subscriber of around 30%.

Figures from Mediavision’s Nordic Q1-analysis show an overall growth of subscribing households (both paying and non-paying subscribers) across Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden of 7% YOY. According to Mediavision estimates, Nordic subscribing households now amount to almost 4.7 million, corresponding to a Nordic household penetration of 42%. Strongest relative growth since Q1 2019 is registered in Finland, which now has 38% subscribing households (+16% YOY). Denmark remains the Nordic country in which Spotify has the lowest household penetration: 27% in Q1 2020, with no significant change YOY.

Simultaneously, another giant actor is ramping up its efforts in this industry. Last week, Apple disclosed that Apple Music is now available in 52 new markets, total availability being 167 markets. According to Counterpoint, Apple Music’s subscriber base grew by 36% globally in 2019, resulting in a market share for paid subscriptions of 19% compared to Spotify’s 35%.

Mediavision closely monitors the intensifying competition within the music streaming industry.

Another very interesting area is the podcast development. Spotify and Apple, along with other major players, are moving very quickly towards a more advanced market for spoken content. Mediavision will shortly release the Q1 report on the Nordic Podcast Market.

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