Video streaming services were initially thought to be one of very few industries to benefit from people spending more time at home. However, there are also negative effects and they are becoming increasingly evident as the lock-down continues – also for the major players.
As more and more countries literally shut down, online video streaming have become increasingly important in people’s lives. In the Nordics, as elsewhere, there is a clear increase in viewing as well as in subscriptions. On a global level, Strategy Analytics recently adjusted its 2020 estimate for SVOD subscribers to 947 million – an increase of +5% compared to pre-corona figures. Netflix, being one of the major actors, is also experiencing a boost both in usage and stock price. However, as the restrictions on people and businesses have spread, so have also the negative consequences.
To start, virtually all productions of series and movies in the US have either been cancelled or postponed. Netflix has put all scripted film and TV productions on hold, including Nordic titles such as Love & Anarchy and Home for Christmas. Several Nordic studios have also postponed or cancelled productions, including Nexiko, FLX and Filmlance. Furthermore, traditional TV programs such as entertainment shows and sports have been affected. For example, Swedish Let’s Dance (“Strictly come dancing”), has been forced to change its’ content as some of the participants have fallen ill.
The break in production also risks affecting launches later in the year. For Netflix, battling the loss of high-profile series and movies already prior to the corona outbreak, this is far from good news. Rights owners such as AT&T/Warner Media and Comcast/NBCUniversal have withdrawn popular titles from Netflix, as they are launching competing services. This leaves Netflix highly dependent on its’ original productions. Some competitors, such as Disney, may not be as affected as their library is more extensive.
Apart from this, a market in distress makes the established saying “Cash is king” highly relevant. Netflix has long struggled with negative cash flow, as a result of the huge investments in content (as well as in tech and people). And at the same time, new services are being launched… Disney+ initiated its second phase of the global launch in Europe last week – +5 million downloads the first day. In the wake of the Conrona pandemic, concerns are now being raised that layoffs and unemployment rates will increase pressure in the industry. It may very well be that streaming services are approaching market maturity with increasing competition as well as a slowing stacking factor.
From a local Nordic perspective these questions are highly relevant. Soon Mediavision will publish this spring’s edition of Insight: TV & Streaming and Insight: Media & Markets, with SVOD figures for both consumption and subscriptions. We can conclude, that even if streaming is experiencing a surge right now, there are several reasons for concern going forward.
Although athletes have been forced to take an involuntary break from the action on the field for the last couple of months, the world of sports media has been quite eventful. Popular media sports rights have switched owners and Telia & Discovery recently made an agreement that turns the tables for sports content in Sweden. On top of that, the first major league was restarted last weekend.
With practically all professional sports activities (apart from equestrian sports) put on hold this far into the pandemic, interest for sports has not worn off. According to a global survey, conducted by IMI’s NextWave consultancy, 38% of males in the Gen Z/Millennial age groups say watching live sports is what they miss the most during the pandemic, outranking both feeling safe to go outside (31%) and general social interaction (32%). Data from Mediavision’s Nordic Sports Analysis 2019 supports this notion.
While sports events are put on hold, the sports market has been anything but calm. High-ranking media rights have been negotiated and perhaps the most eye-catching agreement is that of Nordic Champions League (CL) rights – ranked as the most popular premium sports right in the region in Mediavision’s Nordic Sports Analysis 2019. CL was recently secured by NENT (DK),TV 2 (NO) and Telia/TV4 Media (FI and SE). This week, Telia demonstrated its commitment to sports even further by securing the rights to the top male football league in Spain, La Liga, until spring 2026.
On Monday May 18th, Telia announced that it will license the standalone OTT rights to Discovery in Finland and Sweden (thereby fulfilling the terms set out by the European Commission regarding Telia’s acquisition of Bonnier Broadcasting/TV4). Dplay will carry TV4 Media/C More’s sports content – likely increasing the attractiveness of Dplay significantly, which is already home to popular sports such as the Swedish major football league Allsvenskan and the Olympic games (both summer and winter). This may turn the tables for Dplay, that is still small in terms of numbers of subscribers compared to its competitors.
As it seems, we will soon see some of the major leagues restarting. Germany’s top male football league Bundesliga was first in returning to the stadiums last weekend, but not without objections from the fans. German TV network ZDF found that 62% of the fans would have preferred to cancel the season entirely, rather than resuming the league under terms set out by the Ministry of Health. Regardless, the matches drew record audiences. For example, NENT reported that the six broadcasted games this weekend attracted on average 40,000 viewers in Denmark, compared to 13,000 for this seasons games played prior to the pandemic. Viewing of the high-profile game between Dortmund and Schalke increased by 400% on Viaplay in the Nordics, compared to the corresponding game last fall.
In the Nordics, dates for the return of all top leagues for football has been set, apart for Swedish Allsvenskan. Norwegian Eliteserien is set for 16th of June, Danish Superliga for 28th of May and Finnish Tipsligan (Veikkausliiga) for 1st of July. In Sweden, negotiations have been heated. Last Friday, the Ministry of Health disapproved the proposed starting date and postponed the decision of a new date further. Hopefully, a decision will be made next week.
Cancelled or postponed games of course have severe financial consequences for all actors involved in this industry. Rightsholders will neither pay full price for paused seasons, nor for games lacking the usual atmosphere as spectators are not allowed in the stadiums. The majority of rightsholders have lowered their prices on premium sports subscriptions, causing substantial revenue loss. As leagues are beginning to restart, and money transfers from rightsholders are reinstated, prices of packages may soon be back to original – but not yet. So far, TV 2 Norway has announced that the regular pricing will not apply until when Premier League is played.
Industry News
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IBC 2020 Cancelled
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Netflix Restores Streaming Quality
At the end of March, Netflix along with other streaming services, announced that it would reduce its bandwidth usage by 25% for 30 days. The period was extended, but reports state that Netflix now has begun restoring quality in some countries.
Global OTT Revenues to Reach $167 Billion
According to a study conducted by Digital TV Research, global OTT revenues are expected to reach $167 billion by 2025. If realized, the digits would be double the previous $83 billion recorded in 2019. SVOD is assumed to take a 58% share of the revenues.
Stofa Increased Revenue – But Lost Profits
In its 2019 annual report, Danish Stofa reported record high revenues of 2.16 billion DKK, but profits decreased by approximately 30 million DKK compared to 2018, due to investments and the fusion of SE and Eniig into Stofa’s owner Norlys.
Amedia Launches New Digital Subscription
Norwegian media house Amedia is set to launch new digital subscription bundle Alt+, providing subscribers access to 70 local newspapers. In addition to the local papers, Nettavisen will be included at the price of 249 NOK.
Get and NENT Cooperate on Streaming
For the first time in Norway, Viaplay’s movies and series will be ingested into Get’s own TV-service, in an effort by Get to strengthen its offer in the TV-market. Viaplay’s own app and web-solutions will be included for customers of Get as well.
UK Content Production to be Resumed
The biggest broadcasters in the UK have agreed on a 15-page long document outlining guidance as to how production should be resumed following the corona virus lockdown. Production in the UK has been shut down since mid-March.
SVOD Added 4,6 million New Subs in UK
In the UK, almost 5 million households have signed up to a streaming service since the corona virus lockdown was initiated in late March. Disney+ launched during the period and is estimated to have gained 1.6 million subs in the UK during the first month.
Telmore & Netflix in Unique Nordic Deal
Netflix will be offered as part of Danish mobile service provider Telmore’s content packages in Telmore Play, following a unique deal for the Nordics. Telmore has, according to own sources, 700 000 customers, with 30% of them subscribing to Telmore Play.
Mediavision Press Releases
Spotify Twice as big as Apple Podcasts in the Nordics
According to Mediavision’s quarterly analysis of the Nordic audio market in Q1, Spotify is the podcast platform with the highest daily reach in the Nordic countries.
Svenska hushåll lägger alltmer pengar på medietjänster i Q1 2020
Mediavisions analys av hushållens medieköp första kvartalet 2020 visar att utgifterna för ljud, text och rörlig bild fortsätter att öka.
More Streaming Subscriptions in Swedish Households – Strong Growth Expected in 2020
Today, Mediavision releases its Q1 analysis of the Swedish TV and streaming market. For the first time since the Netflix’s launch in Sweden 2012, there is no growth YOY in SVOD household penetration.
Mediavision in the News
Strömningstjänster ser en ökning i coronatider
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Swedish SVoD subscriptions rise in Q1 but not household penetration
Swedish consultancy Mediavision said in its analysis of Sweden’s television and streaming market in the first quarter of 2020 that there has been no year-on-year growth in SVoD household penetration…
Svenska hushållens mediautgifter ökade i första kvartalet
De svenska hushållen har under första kvartalet spenderat i snitt 655 kronor på media, vilket är en ökning med fem procent året innan. Det visar en analys från Mediavision.
Svenska hushåll lägger 25 kr i månaden på ljudböcker – av totalt 655 kr på media
De hushåll som redan har ett streamingabonnemang är mer benägna att skaffa ett till. Det visar Mediavisions siffror från årets första kvartal.
Swedish Q1 average household media spending rises 5% year on year
Swedish household spending on media rose to an average of SEK 655 in the first quarter of 2020, according to consultancy Medaivision.
Stremingabonnemangen ökar – men inte nykunderna
De hushåll som redan har ett streamingabonnemang är mer benägna att skaffa ett till. Det visar Mediavisions siffror från årets första kvartal.